Abstracts on Global Climate Change

Understanding the underlying mechanisms that cause variation in survival and the reproductive success of animals is essential for predicting variation in population parameters. To gain an understanding of the effects of density and winter weather severity on white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780), we examined the effects of current-year deer density and cumulative weekly average values for snow depth, rainfall, and the number of degrees below -15 degrees C until the time of death, as well as cumulative effects of density and snow depth over the previous one and two winters, on the body condition of adult females, adult males, and fawns. Model selection using Akaike’s Information Criterion and multi-model inference suggested that snow depth was the best predictor of body condition for all three age/sex groups. Winter rainfall was the next most influential predictor for adult females and adult males but was not important in determining fawn body condition. Temperature had the least influence on the body condition of all three age/sex groups. Deer density during the winter of death had minimal effects for all groups and we found no evidence that cumulative multiyear variables influenced body condition. We hypothesize that cohort variation may better explain previous findings showing effects of multiyear variables. A model for estimating the proportion of animals in poor body condition for each age/sex group is presented.

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