Consistency of interdecadal variation in the summer monsoon over eastern China and heterogeneity in springtime surface air temperatures

Xu, XD Shi, XH Xie, L Wang, YF

JOURNAL OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN 85A: 311-323

This study investigates the consistency of interdecadal variations in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and changes in the heterogeneous structure of sea/land springtime surface air temperature (SAT) over eastern China and the adjacent ocean (including the South China Sea and part of the Western Pacific Ocean). A profile of the summer mean meridional wind over eastern China for the past 40 years shows a coherent interdecadal weakening trend for the EASM. The decadal-scale (11-year running mean) summertime (June-August) wind and springtime (March-May) SAT fields are decomposed using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method. The results indicate that both the leading eigenvector of the decadal-scale meridional wind and that for the SAT over East Asia account for more than 70% of the total variance. Their time coefficients show a similar trend, with the transition from negative to positive values occurring around 1978; i.e., the EASM turned from a stronger phase to a weaker phase around 1978. The springtime sea/land SAT distribution before and after 1978 also showed a shift in interdecadal trends. Therefore, the south-low/north-high nature of the principal component of springtime SAT over eastern China is closely related to the progressive weakening of the EASM. Our results suggest that within the context of the regional impact of global climate change, heterogeneous changes in the regional springtime sea/land SAT in eastern Asia might in part have led to a weakening of the effect of sea/land thermal driving on the EASM.

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