Abstracts on Global Climate Change
       

Jun 2007

Periodic solutions for soil carbon dynamics equilibriums with time-varying forcing variables

Martin, MP Cordier, S Balesdent, J Arrouays, D

ECOLOGICAL MODELLING 204:3-4 523-530

Numerical models that simulate the dynamics of carbon in soil are increasingly used to improve our knowledge and help our management of the carbon cycle. Calculation of the long-term behavior of these models is necessary in many applications but encounters the difficulty of managing the periodic forcing variables, e.g. seasonal variations, such as carbon inputs and decomposition rates. This calculation is conventionally done by running the model over large time durations or by assuming constant forcing variables. Two methods, which make it possible to rapidly compute periodic solutions taking into account the time variations of these variables, are proposed. The first one works on discrete-time models and the second one on continuous-time models involving Fourier transforms. Both methods were tested on the Rothamsted carbon model (RothC), a discrete-time model which has also been given a continuous approximation, using realistic and unrealistic sets of time-varying forcing functions. Both methods provided an efficient way to compute the periodic solutions of the RothC model within the application domain of the model. Compared to running the discrete model to the equilibrium, reduction in the computational cost was of up to 95% at the expense of a maximum absolute error of 1% for the estimation of carbon stocks. For specific distributions of the forcing variables the use of Fourier transform of zero order, which was equivalent to assume constant forcing variables, led to a maximum absolute error of SS% in the estimation of the long-term behavior of the model. There, a Fourier transform of order higher than zero is required. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SPotGS:methods | /neutral/methods | 022

Storage and release of fossil organic carbon related to weathering of sedimentary rocks

Copard, Y Amiotte-Suchet, P Di-Giovanni, C

EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS 258:1-2 345-357

The biogeochemical carbon cycle, which plays an undeniable role in global climate change, is defined both by the size of carbon reservoirs (such as the atmosphere, biomass, soil and bedrock) and the exchange between them of various mineral and organic carbon forms. Among these carbon forms, fossil organic carbon (FOC) (i.e., the ancient organic matter stored in sedimentary rocks) is widely observed in modem environments but is not included in the supergene carbon budget. Using a digitized map of the world and an existing model of CO2 consumption associated with rock weathering, we establish the global distribution of FOC stored in the first meter of sedimentary rocks and a first estimation of annual FOC delivery to the modem environment resulting from chemical weathering of these rocks. Results are given for the world’s 40 major river basins and extended to the entire continental surface. With a mean value of I 100 10(9) t, mainly controlled by shale distribution, the global FOC stock is significant and comparable to that of soil organic carbon (1500 10(9) t). The annual chemical delivery of FOC, estimated at 43 10(6) t yr(-1) and controlled by the areal distribution of shales and runoff is of the same order of magnitude as the FOC output flux to oceans. Chemical weathering of bedrock within the Amazon basin produces one-quarter of the total global flux of FOC derived from chemical weathering, and thus is expected to govern FOC release on a global scale. These results raise important questions concerning the role of FOC in the modem carbon cycle as well as the origin and the budget of carbon in soils and rivers. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SPotGS:undecided | /unclassified/undecided | 010

Simulated changes in active/break spells during the Indian summer monsoon due to enhanced CO2 concentrations: assessment from selected coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models

Mandke, SK Sahai, AK Shinde, MA Joseph, S Chattopadhyay, R

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 27:7 837-859

The simulations by ten coupled GCMs under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report-4 are used to study the implication of possible global climate change on active/break spells of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The validation of the mean daily cycle of the summer monsoon precipitation over the Indian core region and the spatial pattern of the ISM precipitation climatology with observation suggest that six models simulate fairly well, whereas four models differ from observation. Thus, the identification of activelbreak spells is confined to six models. The sensitivity to climate change has been assessed from two experiments, namely, 1% per year CO2 increase to doubling and 1% per year CO2 increase to quadrupling. The changes in the daily mean cycle and the standard deviation of precipitation, frequency, and duration of active/break spells in future climate change are uncertain among the models and at times among two experiments. The break composite precipitation anomalies strengthen and spread moderately (significantly) in the doubled (quadrupled) CO2 experiment. Copyright (c) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

SPotGS:endorseimp | /endorse/endorseimp | 007

Simulation of seasonal precipitation and raindays over Greece: a statistical downscaling technique based on artificial neural networks (ANNs)

Tolika, K Maheras, P Vafiadis, M Flocasc, HA Arseni-Papadimitriou, A

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 27:7 861-881

A statistical downscaling technique based on artificial neural network (ANN) was employed for the estimation of local changes on seasonal (winter, spring) precipitation and raindays for selected stations over Greece. Empirical transfer functions were derived between large-scale predictors from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and local rainfall parameters. Two sets of predictors were used: (1) the circulation-based 500 hPa and (2) its combination along with surface specific humidity and raw precipitation data (nonconventional predictor). The simulated time series were evaluated against observational data and the downscaling model was found efficient in generating winter and spring precipitation and raindays. The temporal evolution of the estimated variables was well captured, for both seasons. Generally, the use of the nonconventional predictors are attributed to the improvement of the simulated results. Subsequently, the present day and future changes on precipitation conditions were examined using large-scale data from the atmospheric general circulation model HadAM3P to the statistical model. The downscaled climate change signal for both precipitation and raindays, partly for winter and especially for spring, is similar to the signal from the HadAM3P direct output: a decrease of the parameters is predicted over the study area. However, the amplitude of the changes was different. Copyright (c) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society

SPotGS:methods | /neutral/methods | 008

Strontium isotope tracing of terrigenous sediment dispersal in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current: Implications for constraining frontal positions

Hemming, SR van de Flierdt, T Goldstein, SL Franzese, AM Roy, M Gastineau, G Landrot, G

GEOCHEMISTRY GEOPHYSICS GEOSYSTEMS 8: -

[1] The vigor of the glacial Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and the locations of frontal boundaries are important parameters for understanding the role of the Southern Ocean in global climate change. Toward the goal of understanding the locations of currents we present a survey of Sr isotope ratios in terrigenous sediments around the perimeter of Antarctica. The pattern of the variations within the modern ACC is used to suggest that terrigenous sediment from Antarctica is injected into the ACC via the Ross and Weddell gyres in the south. North of the main ACC the Sr isotopes reflect continental contributions from Africa, Australia-New Zealand, and South America. Along a transect northward from the Ross Sea, Sr isotope ratios show a decrease from higher values in the south ( Antarctic provenance) to lower values in the north ( provenance from New Zealand). This otherwise monotonic decrease is interrupted within the ACC by a “zigzag” to lower and then higher values, which accompanies minimum terrigenous flux. This zigzag requires contributions from two additional sediment sources beyond the main Antarctic and New Zealand end-members. The lower Sr isotope ratios are attributable to greater contributions from basaltic sources within the current, a consistent pattern around the ACC. The samples with higher Sr isotope ratios point to an additional contributor, possibly a wind-transported component from Australia. During the LGM there is a systematic geographical variation in the Sr isotope ratios, similar to that of the Holocene. A small offset of the zigzag to the north ( approximately 1 degrees-2 degrees) may indicate a small northward shift of the southern boundary of the ACC. More highly resolved data are required to test whether this northward shift is really significant and whether it applies to other ACC fronts during the LGM.

SPotGS:undecided | /unclassified/undecided | 020

Dominant factors controlling glacial and interglacial variations in the treeline elevation in tropical Africa

Wu, HB Guiot, J Brewer, S Guo, ZT Peng, CH

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 104:23 9720-9724

The knowledge of tropical palaeoclimates is crucial for understanding global climate change, because it is a test bench for general circulation models that are ultimately used to predict future global warming. A longstanding issue concerning the last glacial maximum in the tropics is the discrepancy between the decrease in sea-surface temperatures reconstructed from marine proxies and the high-elevation decrease in land temperatures estimated from indicators of treeline elevation. In this study, an improved inverse vegetation modeling approach is used to quantitatively reconstruct palaeoclimate and to estimate the effects of different factors (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration) on changes in treeline elevation based on a set of pollen data covering an altitudinal range from 100 to 3,140 m above sea level in Africa. We show that lowering of the African treeline during the last glacial maximum was primarily triggered by regional drying, especially at upper elevations, and was amplified by decreases in atmospheric CO2 concentration and perhaps temperature. This contrasts with scenarios for the Holocene and future climates, in which the increase in treeline elevation will be dominated by temperature. Our results suggest that previous temperature changes inferred from tropical treeline shifts may have been overestimated for low-CO2 glacial periods, because the limiting factors that control changes in treeline elevation differ between glacial and interglacial periods.

SPotGS:paleo | /neutral/paleo | 014

Evidence for carbon sequestration by agricultural liming

Hamilton, SK Kurzman, AL Arango, C Jin, LX Robertson, GP

GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES 21:2 -

[1] Agricultural lime can be a source or a sink for CO2, depending on whether reaction occurs with strong acids or carbonic acid. Here we examine the impact of liming on global warming potential by comparing the sum of Ca2+ and Mg2+ to carbonate alkalinity in soil solutions beneath unmanaged vegetation versus limed row crops, and of streams and rivers in agricultural versus forested watersheds, mainly in southern Michigan. Soil solutions sampled by tension indicated that lime can act as either a source or a sink for CO2. However, infiltrating waters tended to indicate net CO2 uptake, as did tile drainage waters and streams draining agricultural watersheds. As nitrate concentrations increased in infiltrating waters, lime switched from a net CO2 sink to a source, implying nitrification as a major acidifying process. Dissolution of lime may sequester CO2 equal to roughly 25 - 50% of its C content, in contrast to the prevailing assumption that all of the carbon in lime becomes CO2. The similar to 30 Tg/yr of agricultural lime applied in the United States could thus sequester up to 1.9 TgC/ yr, about 15% of the annual change in the U. S. CO2 emissions (12 Tg C/yr for 2002 - 2003). The implications of liming for atmospheric CO2 stabilization should be considered in strategies to mitigate global climate change.

SPotGS:endorseimp | /endorse/endorseimp | 028

Diversity and zonal distribution of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains

Shi, ZY Chen, ZC Zhang, LY Feng, G Christie, P Tian, CY Li, XL

SCIENCE IN CHINA SERIES D-EARTH SCIENCES 50: Suppl. 1 135-141

The arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungal status of the 20 most common plant species distributed in 4 vegetation types (meadow steppe, desert steppe, steppe desert and typical desert) on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains was investigated. Samples of the plant species and their rhizosphere soils were collected from the 4 vegetation zones and examined to compare their mycorrhizal status, AM fungal spore densities, biovolumes, and community structures. 28 AM fungal species were isolated from the rhizosphere soils: of these, 5 belonged to Acaulospora, 1 to Archaeospora and 22 to Glomus. 5 AM fungi, Glomus aggregatum, G. claroideum, G. deserticola, G. etunicatum and G. sinuosum, were observed in all 4 zonal types. No significant differences were observed in mean proportion of root length colonized by AM fungi among the plant species within each zonal type. Comparing the 4 zonal types, Plantago minuta (84.5%) in steppe desert and Eremopyrum orientale (83.1%) in typical desert showed the highest root colonizatsion rates. AM fungal spore densities and biovolumes were significantly different in the different zonal types. AM fungal spore densities and biovolumes, species richness and diversity were highest in meadow steppe and lowest in typical desert.

SPotGS:unrelated | /unrelated | 001

Eustasy and sea water Sr composition: application to high-resolution Sr-isotope stratigraphy of Miocene shallow-water carbonates

Kroeger, KF Reuter, M Forst, MH Breisig, S Hartmann, G Brachert, TC

SEDIMENTOLOGY 54:3 565-585

Oceanic Sr-87/Sr-86-isotope ratios are strongly influenced by rates of silicate weathering and therefore linked not only to glaciation but also to sea-level change. The present study combines analysis of sequence stratigraphy and basin architecture with Sr-isotope stratigraphy in Miocene shallow-water sediments in southern Portugal and Crete (Greece). The common method is to use smoothed global sea water Sr-isotope reference curves but here a different approach is chosen. Instead, measured Sr-isotope curves are correlated with unsmoothed reference curves by identification of similar fluctuations in the order of several 100 kyr. Transgressive intervals are characterized by increasing Sr-isotope ratios interpreted as corresponding to intensified silicate weathering as a consequence of deglaciation, while lowstand deposits have low Sr-isotope ratios. Comparison of Sr-isotope curves and sedimentary sequences in the studied basins with independent global delta O-18 data and data on global sea-level might suggest a general relationship, supporting a connection to global climate change. Because of these relationships, the method presented herein has a high potential for use in high-resolution age dating and is also applicable in shallow-water sediments.

SPotGS:paleo | /neutral/paleo | 024

The efficiency gap behind the Annex I parties under the Kyoto Protocol

Lo, SF

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND WORLD ECOLOGY 14:3 225-234

With the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, an era of global efforts to combat climate change is beginning. Countries belonging to Annex I Parties are obligated to meet their target in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper broadens the scope of research to compare the performance between two groups, Annex 11 Parties and economies in transition (EIT) Parties (both of which are in the set of Annex I Parties), undertaking responsibilities for GHG emission reduction. This differs from the traditional application of evaluation and aims to identify inherent efficiency differences across systems, rather than separately from the potential inefficiency of individual countries. An efficiency gap was found between the group of Annex 11 Parties and the group of EIT Parties, by adjusting efficiency levels. Considering a reference set, efficient Annex 11 countries are referenced, both within their own group and within the EIT group; efficient EIT countries are only benchmarked within the group. The evidence provided can shed light on the function of joint implementation, that Annex I countries will cooperate to reduce GHG emissions, based on their common, but differentiated, responsibilities and capacity for global climate change.

SPotGS:endorseimp | /endorse/endorseimp | 005

Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change

Zickfeld, K Levermann, A Morgan, MG Kuhlbrodt, T Rahmstorf, S Keith, DW

CLIMATIC CHANGE 82:3-4 235-265

We present results from detailed interviews with 12 leading climate scientists about the possible effects of global climate change on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The elicitation sought to examine the range of opinions within the climatic research community about the physical processes that determine the current strength of the AMOC, its future evolution in a changing climate and the consequences of potential AMOC changes. Experts assign different relative importance to physical processes which determine the present-day strength of the AMOC as well as to forcing factors which determine its future evolution under climate change. Many processes and factors deemed important are assessed as poorly known and insufficiently represented in state-of-the-art climate models. All experts anticipate a weakening of the AMOC under scenarios of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. Two experts expect a permanent collapse of the AMOC as the most likely response under a 4xCO(2) scenario. Assuming a global mean temperature increase in the year 2100 of 4 K, eight experts assess the probability of triggering an AMOC collapse as significantly different from zero, three of them as larger than 40%. Elicited consequences of AMOC reduction include strong changes in temperature, precipitation distribution and sea level in the North Atlantic area. It is expected that an appropriately designed research program, with emphasis on long-term observations and coupled climate modeling, would contribute to substantially reduce uncertainty about the future evolution of the AMOC.

SPotGS:discuss | /neutral/discuss | 050

Thermal stress and coral cover as drivers of coral disease outbreaks

Bruno, JF Selig, ER Casey, KS Page, CA Willis, BL Harvell, CD Sweatman, H Melendy, AM

PLOS BIOLOGY 5:6 1220-1227

Very little is known about how environmental changes such as increasing temperature affect disease dynamics in the ocean, especially at large spatial scales. We asked whether the frequency of warm temperature anomalies is positively related to the frequency of coral disease across 1,500 km of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. We used a new high-resolution satellite dataset of ocean temperature and 6 y of coral disease and coral cover data from annual surveys of 48 reefs to answer this question. We found a highly significant relationship between the frequencies of warm temperature anomalies and of white syndrome, an emergent disease, or potentially, a group of diseases, of Pacific reef- building corals. The effect of temperature was highly dependent on coral cover because white syndrome outbreaks followed warm years, but only on high (> 50%) cover reefs, suggesting an important role of host density as a threshold for outbreaks. Our results indicate that the frequency of temperature anomalies, which is predicted to increase in most tropical oceans, can increase the susceptibility of corals to disease, leading to outbreaks where corals are abundant.

SPotGS:endorseimp | /endorse/endorseimp | 013

Constructing regional scenarios for sustainable agriculture in European Russia and Ukraine for 2000 to 2070

Romanenko, IA Romanenkov, VA Smith, P Smith, JU Sirotenko, OD Lisovoi, NV Shevtsova, LK Rukhovich, DI Koroleva, PV

REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 7:2 63-77

This study estimates the consequences of climate change on cropland with and without implementation of adaptation measures, paying special attention to the maintenance of soil organic carbon (C) stocks. We examine the possibility for regional sustainable agricultural management practice that combines both maintenance and gain in soil carbon level with profit maximization. Future scenarios of Regional Agricultural Production Systems (RAPS) were constructed for 2000-2070 based on linking the effects of global climate change, predicted change in productivity parameters for the main agricultural crops, land-use and soil database parameters. The RAPS were used to examine profitability and feasibility of alternative agricultural scenarios, based on an economic model. A number of recommendations for decision making were proposed based on an assessment of the efficiency of adaptation in animal husbandry and in the crop production sector, after analysis of current percentage of perennial grass in rotation in comparison with future economic scenarios.

SPotGS:endorseimp | /endorse/endorseimp | 019

Modelling energy systems for developing countries

Urban, F Benders, RMJ Moll, HC

ENERGY POLICY 35:6 3473-3482

Developing countries’ energy use is rapidly increasing, which affects global climate change and global and regional energy settings. Energy models are helpful for exploring the future of developing and industrialised countries. However, energy systems of developing countries differ from those of industrialised countries, which has consequences for energy modelling. New requirements need to be met by present-day energy models to adequately explore the future of developing countries’ energy systems. This paper aims to assess if the main characteristics of developing countries are adequately incorporated in present-day energy models. We first discuss these main characteristics, focusing particularly on developing Asia, and then present a model comparison of 12 selected energy models to test their suitability for developing countries. We conclude that many models are biased towards industrialised countries, neglecting main characteristics of developing countries, e.g. the informal economy, supply shortages, poor performance of the power sector, structural economic change, electrification, traditional bio-fuels, urban-rural divide. To more adequately address the energy systems of developing countries, energy models have to be adjusted and new models have to be built. We therefore indicate how to improve energy models for increasing their suitability for developing countries and give advice on modelling techniques and data requirements. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SPotGS:unrelated | /unrelated | 018

Palau’s coral reefs show differential habitat recovery following the 1998-bleaching event

Golbuu, Y Victor, S Penland, L Idip, D Emaurois, C Okaji, K Yukihira, H Iwase, A van Woesik, R

CORAL REEFS 26:2 319-332

Documenting successional dynamics of coral communities following large-scale bleaching events is necessary to predict coral population responses to global climate change. In 1998, high sea surface temperatures and low cloud cover in the western Pacific Ocean caused high coral mortality on the outer exposed reefs of Palau (Micronesia), while coral mortality in sheltered bays was low. Recovery was examined from 2001 to 2005 at 13 sites stratified by habitat (outer reefs, patch reefs and bays) and depth (3 and 10 m). Two hypotheses were tested: (1) rates of change of coral cover vary in accordance with habitat, and (2) recovery rates depend on recruitment. Coral cover increased most in the sheltered bays, despite a low recruitment rate, suggesting that recovery in bays was primarily a consequence of remnant regrowth. Recruitment densities were consistently high on the wave-exposed reefs, particularly the western slopes, where recovery was attributed to both recruitment and regrowth of remnants. Recovery was initially more rapid at 10 m than 3 m on outer reefs, but in 2004, recovery rates were similar at both depths. Rapid recovery was possible because Palau’s coral reefs were buffered by remnant survival and recruitment from the less impacted habitats.

SPotGS:endorseimp | /endorse/endorseimp | 011

A maximum entropy method for combining AOGCMs for regional intra-year climate change assessment

Laurent, R Cai, XM

CLIMATIC CHANGE 82:3-4 411-435

This paper deals with different responses from various Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs) at the regional scale. What can be the best use of AOGCMs for assessing the climate change in a particular region? The question is complicated by the consideration of intra-year month-to-month variability of a particular climate variable such as precipitation or temperature in a specific region. A maximum entropy method (MEM), which combines limited information with empirical perspectives, is applied to assessing the probability-weighted multimodel ensemble average of a climate variable at the region scale. The method is compared to and coupled with other two methods: the root mean square error minimization method and the simple multimodel ensemble average method. A mechanism is developed to handle a comprehensive range of model uncertainties and to identify the best combination of AOGCMs based on a balance of two rules: depending equally on all models versus giving higher priority to models more strongly verified by the historical observation. As a case study, the method is applied to a central US region to compute the probability-based average changes in monthly precipitation and temperature projected for 2055, based on outputs from a set of AOGCMs. Using the AOGCM data prepared by international climate change study groups and local climate observation data, one can apply the MEM to precipitation or temperature for a particular region to generate an annual cycle, which includes the effects from both global climate change and local intra-year climate variability.

SPotGS:methods | /neutral/methods | 052

Response of macroinvertebrates to warming, nutrient addition and predation in large-scale mesocosm tanks

Feuchtmayr, H McKee, D Harvey, IF Atkinson, D Moss, B

HYDROBIOLOGIA 584: 425-432

There is increasing concern about the effect of climate change on aquatic systems. We examined changes in macroinvertebrate communities caused by increased temperature (3 degrees C above ambient during summer only and continuous 3 degrees C above ambient all year round), influences of fish (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) and addition of nutrients ( nitrogen and phosphorus) in 48 large-scale (3000 l) tanks over a 2 year period. While numbers of Isopoda, Chaoborus, Corixidae, Ephemeroptera, Notonectidae and Odonata were reduced by the presence of fish, nutrient addition caused isopods, corixids, mayflies and odonates to increase in abundance. Impacts of temperature increase were surprisingly low, with only gastropods increasing in heated tanks, suggesting that, overall abundances of most macroinvertebrate taxa will not be severely affected by the predicted temperature rise. To determine if taxa were sampled representatively during the experiment, net sweep samples taken towards the end of the experiment were compared with final macroinvertebrate abundances when the complete contents of each tank were harvested. We found that net sweeping is an appropriate semi-quantitative method for most taxa in mesocosm tanks. However, mites, coleopteran adults and larvae, dipterans and Chaoborus were not adequately sampled. This might explain why we could not detect any treatment effects of temperature, fish or nutrients on mites, coleopterans and dipterans and calls for different sampling techniques for these taxa, especially in ponds with vegetation stands.

SPotGS:endorseimp | /endorse/endorseimp | 027

The evolution of climate change impact studies on hydrology and water resources in California

Vicuna, S Dracup, JA

CLIMATIC CHANGE 82:3-4 327-350

Potential global climate change impacts on hydrology pose a threat to water resources systems throughout the world. The California water system is especially vulnerable to global warming due to its dependence on mountain snow accumulation and the snowmelt process. Since 1983, more than 60 studies have investigated climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources in California. These studies can be categorized in three major fields: (1) Studies of historical trends of streamflow and snowpack in order to determine if there is any evidence of climate change in the geophysical record; (2) Studies of potential future predicted effects of climate change on streamflow and; (3) Studies that use those predicted changes in natural runoff to determine their economic, ecologic, or institutional impacts. In this paper we review these studies with an emphasis on methodological procedures. We provide for each category of studies a summary of significant conclusions and potential areas for future work.

SPotGS:endorseex | /endorse/endorseex | 051