Day-to-day variation in sea-surface temperature reduces sooty tern Sterna fuscata foraging success on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

Erwin, CA Congdon, BC

MARINE ECOLOGY-PROGRESS SERIES 331: 255-266

Many seabird species threatened by global climate change are found mainly or exclusively in tropical regions. A shortage of long-term data linking climatic variation, oceanography and tropical seabird reproductive biology at both within- and between-season temporal scales means that the potential impact of climate change on these species is largely unknown. The sooty tern Sterna fuscata, an almost ubiquitous tropical seabird, has been declining on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, over the last 3 decades. We examined the relationship between sooty tern foraging success and sea-surface temperature (SST) at Michaelmas Cay over 2 consecutive breeding seasons. Consistent patterns were observed with significant negative relationships between day-to-day variation in SST and both the amount of food fed to chicks and the feeding frequency during the latter two-thirds of each breeding season. At the beginning of each breeding cycle, rapid changes in foraging success highlighted that other within-season mechanisms also influence sooty tern reproductive potential. Our results suggest a previously undescribed spatial and temporal link between SST and sooty tern reproduction. Combined with previous findings for the southern GBR, this suggests that SST variation can influence the foraging success of multiple tropical seabird species at a reef-wide scale and implies a significant negative effect of forecasted climatic changes on seabirds breeding on the GBR.

SPotGS:endorseimp | /endorse/endorseimp | 076

Sifting the future from the past: a personal assessment of trends impacting the Australian rangelands

Foran, BD

RANGELAND JOURNAL 29:1 3-11

The fore-sighting exercise undertaken at the Australian Rangeland Society Conference at Port Augusta 10 years ago in 1996 developed four scenarios: ‘economic growth’, ‘best practice’, ‘extra green’ and ‘partial retreat’. These were later collapsed into two broad directions, ` looking out’ (the economic rewards generated by a full application of free market policies with rangeland enterprises having strong external linkages will result in production and management efficiencies which benefit the Australian economy) and ‘looking in’ (rangeland Australia and its human, economic and ecological resources will be best served by the development and maintenance of strong local communities in each rangeland region). It was anticipated that ` looking out’ would apply to only a few rangeland regions where pastoral production is highly valued and rangelands are resilient; ` looking in’ would apply to the majority of the rangelands where other values might outweigh pastoral production in the future and where the rangeland resource is considered less resilient. Given the world’s embrace of economic and trade globalisation, and the dominance in the federal sphere of one coalition government and one prime minister, it seems inevitable that across Australia the last 10 years were dominated by the ` looking out’ direction, while many marginal rangelands had few options but to ‘look in’. The 1996 discussions failed to appreciate fully the importance in shaping today’s world of singular issues such as terrorism, global climate change, potential disease pandemics, the emergence of China and India and, in an Australian rangelands context, the continuing success of the northern beef industry. In the interim, rangelands science has produced an impressive underpinning of integrative information led both by industry investment and government funding. However, long-term resilience is still not assured in many areas of Australia’s rangelands. It continues to be outpaced by those four horsemen of the ( rangelands) apocalypse: the need for growth, periodic droughts, personal gain and introduced organisms. During the next 2 decades the rangelands will be buffeted by many of the same old issues and well as obvious emerging ones. Important human-centric ones will be the tension between European and Aboriginal demographic trends, the increased economic dominance of mining, tourism and defence in the rangelands, and the ‘sponge effect’ of successful towns and particular enterprises. Ecological and bio-physical issues will include carbon trading, energy generation, water catchments, weeds and diseases and agricultural incursions into the northern rangelands. The broad directions of ‘looking out’ and ‘looking in’ still retain some currency for today’s rangeland decision makers but are now embedded in far stronger and shifting currents that are frequently determined by global and national dynamics, rather than local issues. A distinguishing feature of the Australian rangelands is that they are still essentially intact (apart from their fauna) in a world context and may gain future ecological and economic advantage by remaining so. How to retain this status remains one of the great challenges for the next generation of Australian rangelanders.

SPotGS:unrelated | /unrelated | 012

Namaqualand - A brief overview of the physical and floristic environment

Desmet, PG

JOURNAL OF ARID ENVIRONMENTS 70:4 570-587

This paper provides a brief introduction to the physical environment of Namaqualand as well as an overview of patterns of plant diversity. The diverse array of parent material and geological processes that have shaped the region since the break up of Gondwanaland have created a complex, and sometimes dynamic physical environment, that is partly responsible for the patterns and processes observed in the biota today. The contemporary climate is characterised by relatively reliable, albeit low (50-250 mm pa), winter rainfall (> 60% winter precipitation) arriving between May and September. East of the central mountains, tropical thunderstorms penetrate the region in late summer (February April). The presence of the cold Atlantic Ocean in the west not only moderates temperatures throughout Namaqualand (mean max summer temperature < 30 degrees C), but also provides alternative sources of moisture in the form of coastal fog and heavy dew experienced in winter months. Recent analyses show that the flora of the Succulent Karoo is part of the Cape Floral Kingdom, now termed the Greater Cape Floral Kingdom. It is one of only two desert regions recognised as a global biodiversity hot-spot and contains an estimated 6356 plant species in 168 families and 1002 genera. Namaqualand, which comprises about one quarter of the area of the Succulent Karoo, contains about 3500 species in 135 families and 724 genera, with about 25% of this flora endemic to Namaqualand. This remarkable diversity, however, is not distributed evenly throughout the region, but is concentrated in many local centres of endemism usually associated either with quartzite mountain complexes or lag-gravel plains (quartz-patches). A major exception to the general pattern of centres of diversity is the true Fynbos vegetation of the highest Kamiesberg peaks where rainfall exceeds 400 mm pa. Suggested determinants of the region’s exceptional floral diversity include the complex physical environment, a unique past and present climate and the region’s diverse fauna, most notably insects. The challenge for the current inhabitants and scientists working in the region is to develop a better understanding of this ecosystem so that they will be equipped to deal with the challenges posed by the demands for land and the prospect of global climate change. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SPotGS:unrelated | /unrelated | 002

Namaqualand’s climate: Recent historical changes and future scenarios

MacKellar, NC Hewitson, BC Tadross, MA

JOURNAL OF ARID ENVIRONMENTS 70:4 604-614

A brief outline of some issues concerning global climate change research is presented before discussing local-scale changes in Namaqaland’s rainfall. Using a gridded data set derived through interpolation of station records, trends in observed rainfall for the period 1950-1999 are discussed. To assess what changes may occur during the 21st century, the downscaled results of six different General Circulation Model projections are presented. The historical trends show some clear spatial patterns, which depict regions of wetting in the central coastal belt and the north-eastern part of the domain, and extensive drying along the escarpment. Reasonably good agreement is shown by the different downscaled projections. These suggest increased late summer convective precipitation in the north-east, but extensive drying along the coast in early and mid winter consistent with the poleward retreat of rain-bearing mid-latitude cyclones. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SPotGS:endorseimp | /endorse/endorseimp | 003

Coastal flood risk analysis using landsat-7 ETM+ imagery and SRTM DEM: A case study of Izmir, turkey

Demirkesen, AC Evrendilek, F Berberoglu, S Kilic, S

ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 131:1-3 293-300

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports an acceleration of the global mean sea-level rise (MSLR) in the twentieth century in response to global climate change. If this acceleration remains constant, then some coastal areas are most likely to be inundated by the year 2100. The ability to identify the differential vulnerability of coastlines to future inundation hazards as result of global climate change is necessary for timely actions to be taken. Yildiz et al. (Journal of Mapping, 17, 1 75, 2003) reported that the local MSLR in the city of Izmir rose at a rate of 6.8 +/- 0.9 mm year(-1) between 1984 and 2002. In this study, the spatial distribution of the coastal inundation hazards of Izmir region was determined using not only land-use and land-cover (LULC) types derived from the maximum likelihood classification of Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) multi-spectral image set but also the classification of the digital elevation model (DEM) acquired by the shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM). Coastal areas with elevations of 2 and 5 m above mean sea-level vulnerable to inundation were found to cover 2.1 and 3.7% of the study region (6,107 km(2)), respectively. Our findings revealed that Menemen plain along Gediz river, and the settlements of Karsiyaka, Alacati, Aliaga, Candarli and Selcuk are at high risk in order of decreasing vulnerability to permanent and episodic inundation by 2100 under the high MSLR scenarios of 20 to 50 mm year(-1).

SPotGS:endorseex | /endorse/endorseex | 004

Experimental studies on homogeneous charge CI engine fueled with LPG using DEE as an ignition enhancer

Jothi, NKM Nagarajan, G Renganarayanan, S

RENEWABLE ENERGY 32:9 1581-1593

Producing and using renewable fuels for transportation is one approach for sustainable energy future for the world. A renewable fuel contributes lesser global climate change. The present work reports on the utilization of liquified petroleum gas (LPG) as a primary fuel with diethyl ether (DEE) as an ignition enhancer in a direct injection diesel engine. LPG has a simpler hydrocarbon structure than conventional fuels. DEE is recently reported as a renewable fuel and to be a low-emission high-quality diesel fuel replacement. A single cylinder, four-stroke, water-cooled naturally aspirated DI diesel engine having rated output of 3.7 kW at 1500 rpm was used for the experiments. Measurements were made to study the performance, combustion and emissions characteristics. From the results, it is observed that, the brake thermal efficiency lower by about 23% at full load with a reduction of about 65% NO emission than the diesel operation. The maximum reduction in smoke and particulate emissions is observed to be about 85% and 89%, respectively, when compared to that of diesel operation, however an increase in CO and HC emissions was observed. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SPotGS:unrelated | /unrelated | 035

Periodic solutions for soil carbon dynamics equilibriums with time-varying forcing variables

Martin, MP Cordier, S Balesdent, J Arrouays, D

ECOLOGICAL MODELLING 204:3-4 523-530

Numerical models that simulate the dynamics of carbon in soil are increasingly used to improve our knowledge and help our management of the carbon cycle. Calculation of the long-term behavior of these models is necessary in many applications but encounters the difficulty of managing the periodic forcing variables, e.g. seasonal variations, such as carbon inputs and decomposition rates. This calculation is conventionally done by running the model over large time durations or by assuming constant forcing variables. Two methods, which make it possible to rapidly compute periodic solutions taking into account the time variations of these variables, are proposed. The first one works on discrete-time models and the second one on continuous-time models involving Fourier transforms. Both methods were tested on the Rothamsted carbon model (RothC), a discrete-time model which has also been given a continuous approximation, using realistic and unrealistic sets of time-varying forcing functions. Both methods provided an efficient way to compute the periodic solutions of the RothC model within the application domain of the model. Compared to running the discrete model to the equilibrium, reduction in the computational cost was of up to 95% at the expense of a maximum absolute error of 1% for the estimation of carbon stocks. For specific distributions of the forcing variables the use of Fourier transform of zero order, which was equivalent to assume constant forcing variables, led to a maximum absolute error of SS% in the estimation of the long-term behavior of the model. There, a Fourier transform of order higher than zero is required. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SPotGS:methods | /neutral/methods | 022

Storage and release of fossil organic carbon related to weathering of sedimentary rocks

Copard, Y Amiotte-Suchet, P Di-Giovanni, C

EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS 258:1-2 345-357

The biogeochemical carbon cycle, which plays an undeniable role in global climate change, is defined both by the size of carbon reservoirs (such as the atmosphere, biomass, soil and bedrock) and the exchange between them of various mineral and organic carbon forms. Among these carbon forms, fossil organic carbon (FOC) (i.e., the ancient organic matter stored in sedimentary rocks) is widely observed in modem environments but is not included in the supergene carbon budget. Using a digitized map of the world and an existing model of CO2 consumption associated with rock weathering, we establish the global distribution of FOC stored in the first meter of sedimentary rocks and a first estimation of annual FOC delivery to the modem environment resulting from chemical weathering of these rocks. Results are given for the world’s 40 major river basins and extended to the entire continental surface. With a mean value of I 100 10(9) t, mainly controlled by shale distribution, the global FOC stock is significant and comparable to that of soil organic carbon (1500 10(9) t). The annual chemical delivery of FOC, estimated at 43 10(6) t yr(-1) and controlled by the areal distribution of shales and runoff is of the same order of magnitude as the FOC output flux to oceans. Chemical weathering of bedrock within the Amazon basin produces one-quarter of the total global flux of FOC derived from chemical weathering, and thus is expected to govern FOC release on a global scale. These results raise important questions concerning the role of FOC in the modem carbon cycle as well as the origin and the budget of carbon in soils and rivers. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SPotGS:undecided | /unclassified/undecided | 010

Simulated changes in active/break spells during the Indian summer monsoon due to enhanced CO2 concentrations: assessment from selected coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models

Mandke, SK Sahai, AK Shinde, MA Joseph, S Chattopadhyay, R

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 27:7 837-859

The simulations by ten coupled GCMs under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report-4 are used to study the implication of possible global climate change on active/break spells of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The validation of the mean daily cycle of the summer monsoon precipitation over the Indian core region and the spatial pattern of the ISM precipitation climatology with observation suggest that six models simulate fairly well, whereas four models differ from observation. Thus, the identification of activelbreak spells is confined to six models. The sensitivity to climate change has been assessed from two experiments, namely, 1% per year CO2 increase to doubling and 1% per year CO2 increase to quadrupling. The changes in the daily mean cycle and the standard deviation of precipitation, frequency, and duration of active/break spells in future climate change are uncertain among the models and at times among two experiments. The break composite precipitation anomalies strengthen and spread moderately (significantly) in the doubled (quadrupled) CO2 experiment. Copyright (c) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

SPotGS:endorseimp | /endorse/endorseimp | 007

Simulation of seasonal precipitation and raindays over Greece: a statistical downscaling technique based on artificial neural networks (ANNs)

Tolika, K Maheras, P Vafiadis, M Flocasc, HA Arseni-Papadimitriou, A

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 27:7 861-881

A statistical downscaling technique based on artificial neural network (ANN) was employed for the estimation of local changes on seasonal (winter, spring) precipitation and raindays for selected stations over Greece. Empirical transfer functions were derived between large-scale predictors from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and local rainfall parameters. Two sets of predictors were used: (1) the circulation-based 500 hPa and (2) its combination along with surface specific humidity and raw precipitation data (nonconventional predictor). The simulated time series were evaluated against observational data and the downscaling model was found efficient in generating winter and spring precipitation and raindays. The temporal evolution of the estimated variables was well captured, for both seasons. Generally, the use of the nonconventional predictors are attributed to the improvement of the simulated results. Subsequently, the present day and future changes on precipitation conditions were examined using large-scale data from the atmospheric general circulation model HadAM3P to the statistical model. The downscaled climate change signal for both precipitation and raindays, partly for winter and especially for spring, is similar to the signal from the HadAM3P direct output: a decrease of the parameters is predicted over the study area. However, the amplitude of the changes was different. Copyright (c) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society

SPotGS:methods | /neutral/methods | 008

Strontium isotope tracing of terrigenous sediment dispersal in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current: Implications for constraining frontal positions

Hemming, SR van de Flierdt, T Goldstein, SL Franzese, AM Roy, M Gastineau, G Landrot, G

GEOCHEMISTRY GEOPHYSICS GEOSYSTEMS 8: -

[1] The vigor of the glacial Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and the locations of frontal boundaries are important parameters for understanding the role of the Southern Ocean in global climate change. Toward the goal of understanding the locations of currents we present a survey of Sr isotope ratios in terrigenous sediments around the perimeter of Antarctica. The pattern of the variations within the modern ACC is used to suggest that terrigenous sediment from Antarctica is injected into the ACC via the Ross and Weddell gyres in the south. North of the main ACC the Sr isotopes reflect continental contributions from Africa, Australia-New Zealand, and South America. Along a transect northward from the Ross Sea, Sr isotope ratios show a decrease from higher values in the south ( Antarctic provenance) to lower values in the north ( provenance from New Zealand). This otherwise monotonic decrease is interrupted within the ACC by a “zigzag” to lower and then higher values, which accompanies minimum terrigenous flux. This zigzag requires contributions from two additional sediment sources beyond the main Antarctic and New Zealand end-members. The lower Sr isotope ratios are attributable to greater contributions from basaltic sources within the current, a consistent pattern around the ACC. The samples with higher Sr isotope ratios point to an additional contributor, possibly a wind-transported component from Australia. During the LGM there is a systematic geographical variation in the Sr isotope ratios, similar to that of the Holocene. A small offset of the zigzag to the north ( approximately 1 degrees-2 degrees) may indicate a small northward shift of the southern boundary of the ACC. More highly resolved data are required to test whether this northward shift is really significant and whether it applies to other ACC fronts during the LGM.

SPotGS:undecided | /unclassified/undecided | 020

Dominant factors controlling glacial and interglacial variations in the treeline elevation in tropical Africa

Wu, HB Guiot, J Brewer, S Guo, ZT Peng, CH

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 104:23 9720-9724

The knowledge of tropical palaeoclimates is crucial for understanding global climate change, because it is a test bench for general circulation models that are ultimately used to predict future global warming. A longstanding issue concerning the last glacial maximum in the tropics is the discrepancy between the decrease in sea-surface temperatures reconstructed from marine proxies and the high-elevation decrease in land temperatures estimated from indicators of treeline elevation. In this study, an improved inverse vegetation modeling approach is used to quantitatively reconstruct palaeoclimate and to estimate the effects of different factors (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration) on changes in treeline elevation based on a set of pollen data covering an altitudinal range from 100 to 3,140 m above sea level in Africa. We show that lowering of the African treeline during the last glacial maximum was primarily triggered by regional drying, especially at upper elevations, and was amplified by decreases in atmospheric CO2 concentration and perhaps temperature. This contrasts with scenarios for the Holocene and future climates, in which the increase in treeline elevation will be dominated by temperature. Our results suggest that previous temperature changes inferred from tropical treeline shifts may have been overestimated for low-CO2 glacial periods, because the limiting factors that control changes in treeline elevation differ between glacial and interglacial periods.

SPotGS:paleo | /neutral/paleo | 014

Evidence for carbon sequestration by agricultural liming

Hamilton, SK Kurzman, AL Arango, C Jin, LX Robertson, GP

GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES 21:2 -

[1] Agricultural lime can be a source or a sink for CO2, depending on whether reaction occurs with strong acids or carbonic acid. Here we examine the impact of liming on global warming potential by comparing the sum of Ca2+ and Mg2+ to carbonate alkalinity in soil solutions beneath unmanaged vegetation versus limed row crops, and of streams and rivers in agricultural versus forested watersheds, mainly in southern Michigan. Soil solutions sampled by tension indicated that lime can act as either a source or a sink for CO2. However, infiltrating waters tended to indicate net CO2 uptake, as did tile drainage waters and streams draining agricultural watersheds. As nitrate concentrations increased in infiltrating waters, lime switched from a net CO2 sink to a source, implying nitrification as a major acidifying process. Dissolution of lime may sequester CO2 equal to roughly 25 - 50% of its C content, in contrast to the prevailing assumption that all of the carbon in lime becomes CO2. The similar to 30 Tg/yr of agricultural lime applied in the United States could thus sequester up to 1.9 TgC/ yr, about 15% of the annual change in the U. S. CO2 emissions (12 Tg C/yr for 2002 - 2003). The implications of liming for atmospheric CO2 stabilization should be considered in strategies to mitigate global climate change.

SPotGS:endorseimp | /endorse/endorseimp | 028

Diversity and zonal distribution of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains

Shi, ZY Chen, ZC Zhang, LY Feng, G Christie, P Tian, CY Li, XL

SCIENCE IN CHINA SERIES D-EARTH SCIENCES 50: Suppl. 1 135-141

The arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungal status of the 20 most common plant species distributed in 4 vegetation types (meadow steppe, desert steppe, steppe desert and typical desert) on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains was investigated. Samples of the plant species and their rhizosphere soils were collected from the 4 vegetation zones and examined to compare their mycorrhizal status, AM fungal spore densities, biovolumes, and community structures. 28 AM fungal species were isolated from the rhizosphere soils: of these, 5 belonged to Acaulospora, 1 to Archaeospora and 22 to Glomus. 5 AM fungi, Glomus aggregatum, G. claroideum, G. deserticola, G. etunicatum and G. sinuosum, were observed in all 4 zonal types. No significant differences were observed in mean proportion of root length colonized by AM fungi among the plant species within each zonal type. Comparing the 4 zonal types, Plantago minuta (84.5%) in steppe desert and Eremopyrum orientale (83.1%) in typical desert showed the highest root colonizatsion rates. AM fungal spore densities and biovolumes were significantly different in the different zonal types. AM fungal spore densities and biovolumes, species richness and diversity were highest in meadow steppe and lowest in typical desert.

SPotGS:unrelated | /unrelated | 001

Eustasy and sea water Sr composition: application to high-resolution Sr-isotope stratigraphy of Miocene shallow-water carbonates

Kroeger, KF Reuter, M Forst, MH Breisig, S Hartmann, G Brachert, TC

SEDIMENTOLOGY 54:3 565-585

Oceanic Sr-87/Sr-86-isotope ratios are strongly influenced by rates of silicate weathering and therefore linked not only to glaciation but also to sea-level change. The present study combines analysis of sequence stratigraphy and basin architecture with Sr-isotope stratigraphy in Miocene shallow-water sediments in southern Portugal and Crete (Greece). The common method is to use smoothed global sea water Sr-isotope reference curves but here a different approach is chosen. Instead, measured Sr-isotope curves are correlated with unsmoothed reference curves by identification of similar fluctuations in the order of several 100 kyr. Transgressive intervals are characterized by increasing Sr-isotope ratios interpreted as corresponding to intensified silicate weathering as a consequence of deglaciation, while lowstand deposits have low Sr-isotope ratios. Comparison of Sr-isotope curves and sedimentary sequences in the studied basins with independent global delta O-18 data and data on global sea-level might suggest a general relationship, supporting a connection to global climate change. Because of these relationships, the method presented herein has a high potential for use in high-resolution age dating and is also applicable in shallow-water sediments.

SPotGS:paleo | /neutral/paleo | 024

The efficiency gap behind the Annex I parties under the Kyoto Protocol

Lo, SF

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND WORLD ECOLOGY 14:3 225-234

With the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, an era of global efforts to combat climate change is beginning. Countries belonging to Annex I Parties are obligated to meet their target in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper broadens the scope of research to compare the performance between two groups, Annex 11 Parties and economies in transition (EIT) Parties (both of which are in the set of Annex I Parties), undertaking responsibilities for GHG emission reduction. This differs from the traditional application of evaluation and aims to identify inherent efficiency differences across systems, rather than separately from the potential inefficiency of individual countries. An efficiency gap was found between the group of Annex 11 Parties and the group of EIT Parties, by adjusting efficiency levels. Considering a reference set, efficient Annex 11 countries are referenced, both within their own group and within the EIT group; efficient EIT countries are only benchmarked within the group. The evidence provided can shed light on the function of joint implementation, that Annex I countries will cooperate to reduce GHG emissions, based on their common, but differentiated, responsibilities and capacity for global climate change.

SPotGS:endorseimp | /endorse/endorseimp | 005

Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change

Zickfeld, K Levermann, A Morgan, MG Kuhlbrodt, T Rahmstorf, S Keith, DW

CLIMATIC CHANGE 82:3-4 235-265

We present results from detailed interviews with 12 leading climate scientists about the possible effects of global climate change on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The elicitation sought to examine the range of opinions within the climatic research community about the physical processes that determine the current strength of the AMOC, its future evolution in a changing climate and the consequences of potential AMOC changes. Experts assign different relative importance to physical processes which determine the present-day strength of the AMOC as well as to forcing factors which determine its future evolution under climate change. Many processes and factors deemed important are assessed as poorly known and insufficiently represented in state-of-the-art climate models. All experts anticipate a weakening of the AMOC under scenarios of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. Two experts expect a permanent collapse of the AMOC as the most likely response under a 4xCO(2) scenario. Assuming a global mean temperature increase in the year 2100 of 4 K, eight experts assess the probability of triggering an AMOC collapse as significantly different from zero, three of them as larger than 40%. Elicited consequences of AMOC reduction include strong changes in temperature, precipitation distribution and sea level in the North Atlantic area. It is expected that an appropriately designed research program, with emphasis on long-term observations and coupled climate modeling, would contribute to substantially reduce uncertainty about the future evolution of the AMOC.

SPotGS:discuss | /neutral/discuss | 050

Thermal stress and coral cover as drivers of coral disease outbreaks

Bruno, JF Selig, ER Casey, KS Page, CA Willis, BL Harvell, CD Sweatman, H Melendy, AM

PLOS BIOLOGY 5:6 1220-1227

Very little is known about how environmental changes such as increasing temperature affect disease dynamics in the ocean, especially at large spatial scales. We asked whether the frequency of warm temperature anomalies is positively related to the frequency of coral disease across 1,500 km of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. We used a new high-resolution satellite dataset of ocean temperature and 6 y of coral disease and coral cover data from annual surveys of 48 reefs to answer this question. We found a highly significant relationship between the frequencies of warm temperature anomalies and of white syndrome, an emergent disease, or potentially, a group of diseases, of Pacific reef- building corals. The effect of temperature was highly dependent on coral cover because white syndrome outbreaks followed warm years, but only on high (> 50%) cover reefs, suggesting an important role of host density as a threshold for outbreaks. Our results indicate that the frequency of temperature anomalies, which is predicted to increase in most tropical oceans, can increase the susceptibility of corals to disease, leading to outbreaks where corals are abundant.

SPotGS:endorseimp | /endorse/endorseimp | 013

Constructing regional scenarios for sustainable agriculture in European Russia and Ukraine for 2000 to 2070

Romanenko, IA Romanenkov, VA Smith, P Smith, JU Sirotenko, OD Lisovoi, NV Shevtsova, LK Rukhovich, DI Koroleva, PV

REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 7:2 63-77

This study estimates the consequences of climate change on cropland with and without implementation of adaptation measures, paying special attention to the maintenance of soil organic carbon (C) stocks. We examine the possibility for regional sustainable agricultural management practice that combines both maintenance and gain in soil carbon level with profit maximization. Future scenarios of Regional Agricultural Production Systems (RAPS) were constructed for 2000-2070 based on linking the effects of global climate change, predicted change in productivity parameters for the main agricultural crops, land-use and soil database parameters. The RAPS were used to examine profitability and feasibility of alternative agricultural scenarios, based on an economic model. A number of recommendations for decision making were proposed based on an assessment of the efficiency of adaptation in animal husbandry and in the crop production sector, after analysis of current percentage of perennial grass in rotation in comparison with future economic scenarios.

SPotGS:endorseimp | /endorse/endorseimp | 019

Modelling energy systems for developing countries

Urban, F Benders, RMJ Moll, HC

ENERGY POLICY 35:6 3473-3482

Developing countries’ energy use is rapidly increasing, which affects global climate change and global and regional energy settings. Energy models are helpful for exploring the future of developing and industrialised countries. However, energy systems of developing countries differ from those of industrialised countries, which has consequences for energy modelling. New requirements need to be met by present-day energy models to adequately explore the future of developing countries’ energy systems. This paper aims to assess if the main characteristics of developing countries are adequately incorporated in present-day energy models. We first discuss these main characteristics, focusing particularly on developing Asia, and then present a model comparison of 12 selected energy models to test their suitability for developing countries. We conclude that many models are biased towards industrialised countries, neglecting main characteristics of developing countries, e.g. the informal economy, supply shortages, poor performance of the power sector, structural economic change, electrification, traditional bio-fuels, urban-rural divide. To more adequately address the energy systems of developing countries, energy models have to be adjusted and new models have to be built. We therefore indicate how to improve energy models for increasing their suitability for developing countries and give advice on modelling techniques and data requirements. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SPotGS:unrelated | /unrelated | 018

Palau’s coral reefs show differential habitat recovery following the 1998-bleaching event

Golbuu, Y Victor, S Penland, L Idip, D Emaurois, C Okaji, K Yukihira, H Iwase, A van Woesik, R

CORAL REEFS 26:2 319-332

Documenting successional dynamics of coral communities following large-scale bleaching events is necessary to predict coral population responses to global climate change. In 1998, high sea surface temperatures and low cloud cover in the western Pacific Ocean caused high coral mortality on the outer exposed reefs of Palau (Micronesia), while coral mortality in sheltered bays was low. Recovery was examined from 2001 to 2005 at 13 sites stratified by habitat (outer reefs, patch reefs and bays) and depth (3 and 10 m). Two hypotheses were tested: (1) rates of change of coral cover vary in accordance with habitat, and (2) recovery rates depend on recruitment. Coral cover increased most in the sheltered bays, despite a low recruitment rate, suggesting that recovery in bays was primarily a consequence of remnant regrowth. Recruitment densities were consistently high on the wave-exposed reefs, particularly the western slopes, where recovery was attributed to both recruitment and regrowth of remnants. Recovery was initially more rapid at 10 m than 3 m on outer reefs, but in 2004, recovery rates were similar at both depths. Rapid recovery was possible because Palau’s coral reefs were buffered by remnant survival and recruitment from the less impacted habitats.

SPotGS:endorseimp | /endorse/endorseimp | 011

A maximum entropy method for combining AOGCMs for regional intra-year climate change assessment

Laurent, R Cai, XM

CLIMATIC CHANGE 82:3-4 411-435

This paper deals with different responses from various Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs) at the regional scale. What can be the best use of AOGCMs for assessing the climate change in a particular region? The question is complicated by the consideration of intra-year month-to-month variability of a particular climate variable such as precipitation or temperature in a specific region. A maximum entropy method (MEM), which combines limited information with empirical perspectives, is applied to assessing the probability-weighted multimodel ensemble average of a climate variable at the region scale. The method is compared to and coupled with other two methods: the root mean square error minimization method and the simple multimodel ensemble average method. A mechanism is developed to handle a comprehensive range of model uncertainties and to identify the best combination of AOGCMs based on a balance of two rules: depending equally on all models versus giving higher priority to models more strongly verified by the historical observation. As a case study, the method is applied to a central US region to compute the probability-based average changes in monthly precipitation and temperature projected for 2055, based on outputs from a set of AOGCMs. Using the AOGCM data prepared by international climate change study groups and local climate observation data, one can apply the MEM to precipitation or temperature for a particular region to generate an annual cycle, which includes the effects from both global climate change and local intra-year climate variability.

SPotGS:methods | /neutral/methods | 052

Response of macroinvertebrates to warming, nutrient addition and predation in large-scale mesocosm tanks

Feuchtmayr, H McKee, D Harvey, IF Atkinson, D Moss, B

HYDROBIOLOGIA 584: 425-432

There is increasing concern about the effect of climate change on aquatic systems. We examined changes in macroinvertebrate communities caused by increased temperature (3 degrees C above ambient during summer only and continuous 3 degrees C above ambient all year round), influences of fish (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) and addition of nutrients ( nitrogen and phosphorus) in 48 large-scale (3000 l) tanks over a 2 year period. While numbers of Isopoda, Chaoborus, Corixidae, Ephemeroptera, Notonectidae and Odonata were reduced by the presence of fish, nutrient addition caused isopods, corixids, mayflies and odonates to increase in abundance. Impacts of temperature increase were surprisingly low, with only gastropods increasing in heated tanks, suggesting that, overall abundances of most macroinvertebrate taxa will not be severely affected by the predicted temperature rise. To determine if taxa were sampled representatively during the experiment, net sweep samples taken towards the end of the experiment were compared with final macroinvertebrate abundances when the complete contents of each tank were harvested. We found that net sweeping is an appropriate semi-quantitative method for most taxa in mesocosm tanks. However, mites, coleopteran adults and larvae, dipterans and Chaoborus were not adequately sampled. This might explain why we could not detect any treatment effects of temperature, fish or nutrients on mites, coleopterans and dipterans and calls for different sampling techniques for these taxa, especially in ponds with vegetation stands.

SPotGS:endorseimp | /endorse/endorseimp | 027

The evolution of climate change impact studies on hydrology and water resources in California

Vicuna, S Dracup, JA

CLIMATIC CHANGE 82:3-4 327-350

Potential global climate change impacts on hydrology pose a threat to water resources systems throughout the world. The California water system is especially vulnerable to global warming due to its dependence on mountain snow accumulation and the snowmelt process. Since 1983, more than 60 studies have investigated climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources in California. These studies can be categorized in three major fields: (1) Studies of historical trends of streamflow and snowpack in order to determine if there is any evidence of climate change in the geophysical record; (2) Studies of potential future predicted effects of climate change on streamflow and; (3) Studies that use those predicted changes in natural runoff to determine their economic, ecologic, or institutional impacts. In this paper we review these studies with an emphasis on methodological procedures. We provide for each category of studies a summary of significant conclusions and potential areas for future work.

SPotGS:endorseex | /endorse/endorseex | 051

Decade-centenary resolution records of climate changes in East Siberia from elements in the bottom sediments of lake Baikal for the last 150 kyr

Goldberg, EL Phedorin, MA Chebykin, EP Zolotarev, KB Zhuchenko, NA

NUCLEAR INSTRUMENTS & METHODS IN PHYSICS RESEARCH SECTION A-ACCELERATORS SPECTROMETERS DETECTORS AND ASSOCIATED EQUIPMENT 575:1-2 193-195

High-resolution scanning Synchrotron Radiation X-ray Fluorescence Analysis (SRXFA) was applied to investigate the downcore distribution of elements in the sediments from Lake Baikal (East Siberia). The obtained multi-element time series reveal the presence of abrupt climate shifts in East Siberia which were synchronous with the abrupt warming events in the North Atlantic and Greenland (Dansgaard-Oeschges events (D/O) during the last ice age 24-75 kyr BP. We show here the set of climatic indicators reveals all globally known climate changes from dry and cool or glacial climates to humid and warm ones, which were recorded in Northern Atlantic and East Siberia both on the orbital and millennial time scales during the last 150 kyr. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

| /unclassified/todo | 025

Peat archives from Siberia: Synchrotron beam scanning with X-ray fluorescence measurements

Phedorin, MA Bobrov, VA Zolotarevd, KV

NUCLEAR INSTRUMENTS & METHODS IN PHYSICS RESEARCH SECTION A-ACCELERATORS SPECTROMETERS DETECTORS AND ASSOCIATED EQUIPMENT 575:1-2 199-201

We used a new approach to measure the downcore distribution of some major and trace elements that record the Holocene history of peat-forming processes in peat from the Elovka mesotrophic swamp (West Siberia). The approach implies continuous non-destructive scanning of natural wet-core fragments under a sharp synchrotron beam combined with measurements of the excited X-ray fluorescence, in attempt to avoid errors due to the loss of volatiles abundant in peat. The obtained data are in good agreement with the results of the certified methods of neutron activation gamma-spectrometry (INAA) and classical SR XRF, though, as we expected, there is some discrepancy in the contents of volatiles (Br, Zn) which are most probably lost in INAA and/or in ignition. The precision of the suggested SR XRF scanning resolved the variability of 18 elements in the peat-core deposited during 0-8 kyr bp at no worse than 30 years in most cases. The distribution of the measured elements provided a clue to the evolution of peat deposition environments that controlled biogenic production, aerosol input, post-depositional processes, and Ca mineralization associated with pore water circulation in soil during the non-mesotrophic stages of the swamp history. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

| /unclassified/todo | 026

Remote monitoring of spatial and temporal surface soil moisture in fire disturbed boreal forest ecosystems with ERS SAR imagery

Bourgeau-Chavez, LL Kasischke, ES Riordan, K Brunzell, S Nolan, M Hyer, E Slawski, J Medvecz, M Walters, T Ames, S

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF REMOTE SENSING 28:10 2133-2162

Due to the large volume of carbon currently stored in boreal regions and the high frequency of wildfire, the prospects of a warming climate would have important implications for the ecology of boreal forests which in turn would have significant feedbacks for carbon cycling, fire frequency, and global climate change. Since ecological studies and climate change models require routine information on surface soil moisture, the ability to remotely sense this variable is highly desirable. Toward this end research was conducted on developing methods for the retrieval of spatially and temporally varying patterns of soil moisture from recently bumed boreal forest ecosystems of Alaska using C-band satellite radar data. To do this we focused on both individual date and temporal SAR datasets to develop techniques and algorithms which indicate how moisture varies across a recently burned boreal forest. For each of the methods developed we focused on reducing errors of SAR-derived soil moisture estimates due to confounding factors of variations in vegetative biomass and surface roughness. For the individual date soil moisture monitoring, we grouped test sites by a measurable biophysical variable, burn severity, and then developed algorithms relating moisture to SAR backscatter for each bum severity group. The algorithms developed had high coefficients of determination (0.56-0.82) and the moisture maps produced had high accuracy (3.61 rms error) based on the minimal validation conducted. For the seasonal soil moisture mapping we used principal component analysis to capture the time-variant feature of soil moisture and minimize the relatively time-invariant features that confound SAR backscatter. This resulted in good agreement between the drainage maps produced and our limited in situ observations and weather data. However, further validation, with larger sample sizes, is needed. While this study focuses on Alaska, research indicates that the techniques developed should be applicable to boreal forests worldwide.

| /unclassified/todo | 006

Modeling data with multiple time dimensions

Breeden, JL

COMPUTATIONAL STATISTICS & DATA ANALYSIS 51:9 4761-4785

A large class of problems in time series analysis can be represented by a set of overlapping time series with different starting times. These time series may be treated as different probes of the same underlying process. Such probes may follow a characteristic lifecycle as a function of the time since the series began. They may also be subject to environmental shocks according to calendar time. In addition, the calibration of each probe may be unknown such that each series may show a different magnitude of response to the underlying lifecycles and environmental impacts. This paper describes an approach to analyzing these multiple time series as a single set such that the underlying lifecycles and calendar-based shocks may be measured. Simultaneously, the individual calibrations of the time series are also measured. This technique is referred to as dual-time dynamics, and it applies to many important business problems. Applications to tree ring analysis, the SETI@home project, and retail loan portfolio forecasting are provided. Other areas of possible application include digital media services, insurance, human resource management, health care, and biological systems to name a few. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

| /unclassified/todo | 029

Drought sensitivity shapes species distribution patterns in tropical forests

Engelbrecht, BMJ Comita, LS Condit, R Kursar, TA Tyree, MT Turner, BL Hubbell, SP

NATURE 447:7140 80-U2

Although patterns of tree species distributions along environmental gradients have been amply documented in tropical forests(1-7), mechanisms causing these patterns are seldom known. Efforts to evaluate proposed mechanisms have been hampered by a lack of comparative data on species’ reactions to relevant axes of environmental variation(1). Here we show that differential drought sensitivity shapes plant distributions in tropical forests at both regional and local scales. Our analyses are based on experimental field assessments of drought sensitivity of 48 species of trees and shrubs, and on their local and regional distributions within a network of 122 inventory sites spanning a rainfall gradient across the Isthmus of Panama. Our results suggest that niche differentiation with respect to soil water availability is a direct determinant of both local- and regional-scale distributions of tropical trees. Changes in soil moisture availability caused by global climate change and forest fragmentation are therefore likely to alter tropical species distributions, community composition and diversity.

| /unclassified/todo | 060

Spatio-temporal patterns of juvenile marine turtle occurrence in waters of the European continental shelf

Witt, MJ Penrose, R Godley, BJ

MARINE BIOLOGY 151:3 873-885

We present data spanning approximately 100 years regarding the spatial and temporal occurrence of marine turtle sightings and strandings in the northeast Atlantic from two public recording schemes and demonstrate potential signals of changing population status. Records of loggerhead (n = 317) and Kemp’s ridley (n = 44) turtles occurring on the European continental shelf were most prevalent during the autumn and winter, when waters were coolest. In contrast, endothermic leatherback turtles (n = 1,668) were most common during the summer. Analysis of the spatial distribution of hard-shell marine turtle sightings and strandings highlights a pattern of decreasing records with increasing latitude. The spatial distribution of sighting and stranding records indicates that arrival in waters of the European continental shelf is most likely driven by North Atlantic current systems. Future patterns of spatial-temporal distribution, gathered from the periphery of juvenile marine turtles habitat range, may allow for a broader assessment of the future impacts of global climate change on species range and population size.

| /unclassified/todo | 039

Potential changes in weed competitiveness in an agroecological system with elevated temperatures

Tungate, KD Israel, DW Watson, DM Rufty, TW

ENVIRONMENTAL AND EXPERIMENTAL BOTANY 60:1 42-49

Increases in temperature due to global climate changes could significantly impact weed competitiveness and crop-weed interactions. Factors contributing to the responsiveness of a plant species to increasing temperature include the inherent genetic limitations of the species and the ability to acquire water and nutritional resources. The purpose of this study was to examine the temperature responses of selected species from a model agronomic system in the Southeastern U.S.: soybean (Glycine max), sicklepod (Senna obtusifolia) and prickly sida (Sida spinosa). We also determined temperature effects on mycorrhizal colonization and development of the soybean N-2-fixation system, two below-ground associations critical for resource acquisition. The species were grown at 42/37 (day/night), 36/31, 32/27, 28/23, or 23/18 degrees C for 30 days in a field soil with naturally low fertility. Growth of the weed species was maximized at a higher temperature than that for soybean, 36/31 degrees C versus 32/27 degrees C, probably reflecting different geographical origins. At the optimal temperature, weeds had higher root:shoot mass ratios (1.3-1.5 versus 0.9) than soybean, and greater mycorrhizal colonization. In soybean, nodule weights, numbers, and total nitrogenase activity were highest at the growth temperature optimum but decreased considerably at higher temperatures. The results collectively indicate that increases in aerial temperatures above similar to 32 degrees C would enhance weed competitiveness. Increased interference with soybean growth and yields should be expected. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

| /unclassified/todo | 063

Impact of predicted climate change on landslide reactivation: case study of Mam Tor, UK

Dixon, N Brook, E

LANDSLIDES 4:2 137-147

Global change is expected to result in worldwide increases in temperature and alteration of rainfall patterns. Such changes have the potential to modify stability of slopes, both natural and constructed. This paper discusses the potential effect of global climate change on reactivation of landslides through examination of predicted changes in rainfall pattern on the active landslide at Mam Tor, Derbyshire, UK. This landslide is of Pleistocene origin and is crossed by a road that is now abandoned. Damaging winter movement is known to occur when precipitation reaches both 1-month triggering and 6-month antecedent thresholds. Return periods for threshold exceedence is modelled statistically, and the climate change data from the UKCIP 2002 report (Hulme et al. 2002) is applied to this model. For the predicted changes in precipitation, it is shown that the instability threshold could decrease from 4 to 3.5 years by the 2080s for the medium-high climate change scenario. However, predicted temperature changes could influence the response of the landslide through increased evapotranspiration leading to a change in the triggering precipitation thresholds, and this will help counter the impact of changes in precipitation. Analysis of sources of uncertainty in the model has been used to establish the factors that contribute to the predicted changes in stability. Assessment of these factors can provide an indication of the potential impact of climate change on landslides in other areas of the UK.

| /unclassified/todo | 016

Short-rotation forestry of birch, maple, poplar and willow in Flanders (Belgium) I - Biomass production after 4 years of tree growth

Walle, IV Van Camp, N Van de Casteele, L Verheyen, K Lemeur, R

BIOMASS & BIOENERGY 31:5 267-275

During the last three decades, oil crises, agricultural surpluses and global climate change enhanced the interest in short-rotation forestry (SRF). In this study, the biomass production of birch (Betula pendula Roth), maple (Acer pseudoplatanus L.-Tintigny), poplar (Populus trichocarpa x deltoides -Hoogvorst) and willow (Salix viminalis-Orm) growing under a short-rotation (SR) management system were compared after a 4 years period. The plantation was established on former agricultural land. The sandy soil had a mean pH of 4.5 and a mean carbon content of 1.0%. Survival rates after 4 years were 75.8%, 96.8%, 86.3% and 97.6% for birch, maple, poplar and willow, respectively. The mean actual annual biomass production for these four species amounted to 2.6, 1.2, 3.5 and 3.4 t DM ha(-1) yr(-1), respectively. The large variation in biomass production at the different plots of the plantation could not be explained by the measured soil parameters. Biomass production results found here were in the lower range of values reported in literature. However, in contrast to most other studies, no weed control, fertilisation or irrigation was applied in this experiment. As marginal agricultural soils are suboptimal for the growth of poplar and willow, birch can be considered as a very interesting alternative for the establishment of SR plantations in Flanders. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

| /unclassified/todo | 034

Groundwater influence on alpine stream ecosystems

Brown, LE Milner, AM Hannah, DM

FRESHWATER BIOLOGY 52:5 878-890

1. Spatial and temporal variability of relative snow-melt, glacier-melt and groundwater contributions to streams play important roles in shaping alpine freshwater ecosystems. Although meltwater (particularly glacier-fed) streams have received much attention in recent years, the influence of groundwater on alpine freshwater ecosystems remains poorly understood. 2. This study tested the hypotheses that increased groundwater contributions to meltwater-dominated alpine streams would yield increases in water temperature, channel stability, electrical conductivity and particulate organic matter (POM) and decreases in suspended sediment concentration (SSC). These more favourable habitat conditions were hypothesised to result in increased macroinvertebrate abundance and diversity. 3. Groundwater contributions, physicochemical habitat variables and benthic macroinvertebrates were sampled throughout the 2002 and 2003 summer-melt seasons in three streams in the French Pyrenees. 4. Increased groundwater contributions were significantly correlated with higher discharge, water temperature, electrical conductivity, POM and channel stability, but lower SSC. 5. Macroinvertebrate total abundance, taxonomic richness, number of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera genera, and per cent Plecoptera all increased significantly with greater groundwater contributions to streamflow. However, beta diversity and Trichoptera relative abundance decreased. 6. Abundance of most macroinvertebrate taxa was highest under groundwater-dominated conditions but a gradient of optimum groundwater preferences was evident across all taxa. Some taxa were found only where groundwater contributions were low (i.e. in predominantly meltwater-fed streams). 7. This study provides evidence that water source, physicochemical habitat and stream biota are strongly linked. Therefore, an interdisciplinary approach is necessary for future studies aiming to develop conservation strategies or predict the response of alpine river ecosystems to global climate change.

| /unclassified/todo | 043

A new chronology for the age of Appalachian erosional surfaces determined by cosmogenic nuclides in cave sediments

Anthony, DM Granger, DE

EARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS 32:6 874-887

The relative chronology of landscape evolution across the unglaciated Appalachian plateaus of Kentucky and Tennessee is well documented. For more than a century, geomorphologists have carefully mapped and correlated upland erosional surfaces inset by wide-valley straths and smaller terraces. Constraining the timing of river incision into the Appalachian uplands was difficult in the past due to unsuitable dating methods and poorly preserved surface materials. Today, burial dating using the differential decay of cosmogenic Al-26 and Be-10 in clastic cave sediments reveals more than five million years of landscape evolution preserved underground. Multilevel caves linked hydrologically to the incision history of the Cumberland River contain in situ sediments equivalent to fluvial deposits found scattered across the Eastern Highland Rim erosional surface. Cave sediments correlate with: (1) thick Lafayette-type gravels on the Eastern Highland Rim deposited between c. 5 center dot 7 and c. 3 center dot 5 Ma; (2) initial incision of the Cumberland River into the Eastern Highland Rim after c. 3 center dot 5 Ma; (3) formation of the Parker strath between c. 3 center dot 5 Ma and c. 2 center dot 0 Ma; (4) incision into the Parker strath at c. 2 Ma; (5) formation of a major terrace between c. 2 center dot 0 Ma and c. 1 center dot 5 Ma; (6) shorter cycles of accelerated incision and base level stability beginning at c. 1 center dot 5 Ma; and (7) regional aggradation at c. 0 center dot 85 Ma. Initial incision into the Appalachian uplands is interpreted as a response to eustasy at 3 center dot 2-3 center dot 1 Ma. Incision of the Parker strath is interpreted as a response to eustasy at 2 center dot 5-2 center dot 4 Ma. A third incision event at c. 1 center dot 5 Ma corresponds with glacial reorganization of the Ohio River basin. Widespread aggradation of cave passages at c. 0 center dot 85 Ma is interpreted as the beginning of intense glacial-interglacial cycling associated with global climate change. (C) Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

| /unclassified/todo | 023

Vulnerability: A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research

Fussel, HM

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 17:2 155-167

The term `vulnerability’ is used in many different ways by various scholarly communities. The resulting disagreement about the appropriate definition of vulnerability is a frequent cause for misunderstanding in interdisciplinary research on climate change and a challenge for attempts to develop formal models of vulnerability. Earlier attempts at reconciling the various conceptualizations of vulnerability were, at best, partly successful. This paper presents a generally applicable conceptual framework of vulnerability that combines a nomenclature of vulnerable situations and a terminology of vulnerability concepts based on the distinction of four fundamental groups of vulnerability factors. This conceptual framework is applied to characterize the vulnerability concepts employed by the main schools of vulnerability research and to review earlier attempts at classifying vulnerability concepts. None of these one-dimensional classification schemes reflects the diversity of vulnerability concepts identified in this review. The wide range of policy responses available to address the risks from global climate change suggests that climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessments will continue to apply a variety of vulnerability concepts. The framework presented here provides the much-needed conceptual clarity and facilitates bridging the various approaches to researching vulnerability to climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

| /unclassified/todo | 009

Effects of carbon dioxide, temperature and ultraviolet-B radiation and their interactions on soybean (Glycine max L.) growth and development

Koti, S Reddy, KR Kakani, VG Zhao, D Gao, W

ENVIRONMENTAL AND EXPERIMENTAL BOTANY 60:1 1-10

Genetic modifications of agronomic crops will likely be necessary to cope with global climate change. Projected changes in global climate include increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperatures (T) and ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation which have significant effects on plants, however, their interactions are not clearly known to date. In this study we tested the hypothesis that soybean genotypes differ in growth and physiology with exposure to treatments of [CO2] [360 and 720 mu mol mol(-1) (+[CO2])], temperature [30/22 and 38/30 degrees C (+T)] and UV-B radiation [0 and 10 kJ m(-2) d(-1) (+UV-B)] and their interactions. Six soybean genotypes (D 88-5320, D 90-9216, Stalwart III, PI 471938, DG 5630 RR, and DP 4933 RR) representing five maturity groups were grown in eight sunlit, controlled environment chambers in which control treatment had 360 mu mol mol(-1) [CO2] at 30/22 degrees C temperatures and 0 kJ UV-B. Results showed that elevated C02 levels compensated the damaging effects caused by negative stressors such as high temperature and high UV-B radiation levels on most of the growth and physiological parameters studied. Total stress response index (TSRI) for each genotype was developed from the cumulative sum of response indices of vegetative and physiological parameters such as plant height, leaf area, total biomass, net photosynthesis, total chlorophyll content, phenolic content, relative injury and wax content. Based on TSRI, the genotypes were classified as tolerant (PI 471938 and D 88-5320), intermediate (DG 5630 RR and D 90-9216) and sensitive (DP 4933 RR and Stalwart 111). The disruption of growth and physiology was significantly reduced in tolerant genotypes compared to sensitive genotypes. Strong correlations between total response of relative injury (RI), an indicator of cell membrane thermo stability and TSRI developed in this study show that RI could be used to predict the overall vegetative performance of the crop. However, the total response of RI did not show any linear correlation with TSRI of our previous study (which was developed with responses of reproductive traits). This suggests that there is a need to develop better screening tools and/or breeding strategies in developing genotypes suitable to cope future climates at both vegetative and reproductive stages. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

| /unclassified/todo | 062

Depth-mediated reversal of the effects of climate change on long-term growth rates of exploited marine fish

Thresher, RE Koslow, JA Morison, AK Smith, DC

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 104:18 7461-7465

The oceanographic consequences of climate change are increasingly well documented, but the biological impacts of this change on marine species much less so, in large part because of few long-term data sets. Using otolith analysis, we reconstructed historical changes in annual growth rates for the juveniles of eight long-lived fish species in the southwest Pacific, from as early as 1861. Six of the eight species show significant changes in growth rates during the last century, with the pattern differing systematically with depth. Increasing temperatures near the ocean surface correlate with increasing growth rates by species found in depths < 250 m, whereas growth rates of deep-water I(> 1,000 m) species have declined substantially during the last century, which correlates with evidence of long-term cooling at these depths. The observations suggest that global climate change has enhanced some elements of productivity of the shallow-water stocks but also has reduced the productivity, and possibly the resilience, of the already slow-growing deep-water species.

| /unclassified/todo | 036

Reconstruction of solar total irradiance since 1700 from the surface magnetic flux

Krivova, NA Balmaceda, L Solanki, SK

ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS 467:1 335-346

Context. Total solar irradiance changes by about 0.1% between solar activity maximum and minimum. Accurate measurements of this quantity are only available since 1978 and do not provide information on longer-term secular trends. Aims. In order to reliably evaluate the Sun’s role in recent global climate change, longer time series are, however, needed. They can only be assessed with the help of suitable models. Methods. The total solar irradiance is reconstructed from the end of the Maunder minimum to the present based on variations of the surface distribution of the solar magnetic field. The latter is calculated from the historical record of the sunspot number using a simple but consistent physical model. Results. Our model successfully reproduces three independent data sets: total solar irradiance measurements available since 1978, total photospheric magnetic flux since 1974 and the open magnetic flux since 1868 empirically reconstructed using the geomagnetic aa-index. The model predicts an increase in the solar total irradiance since the Maunder minimum of 1.3(-0.4)(+0.2) Wm(-2).

| /unclassified/todo | 046

Anthropogenic and natural disturbance effects on a macrobenthic estuarine community over a 10-year period

Dolbeth, M Cardoso, PG Ferreira, SM Verdelhos, T Raffaelli, D Pardal, MA

MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN 54:5 576-585

For some decades, the Mondego estuary has been under severe ecological stress, mainly caused by eutrophication. The most visible effect was the occurrence of macroalgal blooms and the concomitant decrease of the area occupied by Zostera noltii beds. Since the end of 1998, mitigation measures were implemented in the estuary to promote the recovery of the seagrass beds and the entire surrounding environment. The present study offers a unique opportunity to evaluate the impact of disturbance and the success of the initial recovery process (before and after implementation of the management measures), over a 10-year period, having secondary production as the descriptor. Before the implementation of the mitigation measures, in parallel with the decrease of the Z. noltii beds, species richness, mean biomass and production also decreased, lowering the carrying capacity of the whole Mondego’s south arm. Yet, after the introduction of management measures, the seagrass bed seemed to recover. Consequently, the biomass and production also increased substantially, for the whole intertidal area. Nevertheless, even after the mitigation measures implementation, natural-induced stressors, such as strong flood events induced a drastic reduction of annual production, not seen before the implementation of those measures. This shows that the resilience of the populations may have been lowered by a prior disturbance history (eutrophication) and consequent interactions of multiple stressors. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

| /unclassified/todo | 015

Phenological responses of plants to climate change in an urban environment

Luo, ZK Sun, OJ Ge, QS Xu, WT Zheng, JY

ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH 22:3 507-514

Global climate change is likely to alter the phenological patterns of plants due to the controlling effects of climate on plant ontogeny, especially in an urbanized environment. We studied relationships between various phenophases (i.e., seasonal biological events) and interannual variations of air temperature in three woody plant species (Prunus davidiana, Hibiscus syriacus, and Cercis chinensis) in the Beijing Metropolis, China, based on phenological data for the period 1962-2004 and meteorological data for the period 1951-2004. Analysis of phenology and climate data indicated significant changes in spring and autumn phenophases and temperatures. Changes in phenophases were observed for all the three species, consistent with patterns of rising air temperatures in the Beijing Metropolis. The changing phenology in the three plant species was reflected mainly as advances of the spring phenophases and delays in the autumn phenophases, but with strong variations among species and phenophases in response to different temperature indices. Most phenophases (both spring and autumn phenophases) had significant relationships with temperatures of the preceding months. There existed large inter- and intra-specific variations, however, in the responses of phenology to climate change. It is clear that the urban heat island effect from 1978 onwards is a dominant cause of the observed phenological changes. Differences in phenological responses to climate change may cause uncertain ecological consequences, with implications for ecosystem stability and function in urban environments.

| /unclassified/todo | 037

Deforestation affects biogeographical regionalization: a case study contrasting potential and extant distributions of Mexican terrestrial mammals

Escalante, T Sanchez-Cordero, V Morrone, JJ Linaje, M

JOURNAL OF NATURAL HISTORY 41:13-16 965-984

We used ecological niche modelling projected as species’ potential ( based on the original vegetation map) and extant ( based on the 2000 land use and vegetation map) distributions to analyse changes on patterns of endemism of terrestrial mammals occurring in Mexico. Based on the biogeographic method of Parsimony Analysis of Endemicity, we obtained cladograms under scenarios of species’ potential distribution ( t1) and extant distributions ( t2). We found that the resolution of consensus cladogram in t2 was poorer, while there were more geographic synapomorphies in t1, and more autapomorphies in t2 due to a reduction of species’ distributions as a consequence of deforestation. We defined a hierarchical regionalization with two regions with the cladogram of t1; a transitional zone, two subregions, five dominions, and 15 provinces. Conversely, the consensus cladogram of t2 had a basal trichotomy, and the position of the Sierra Madre Occidental changed compared with t1. In t1 and t2, the Yucatan Peninsula+ Chiapas+ Isthmus of Tehuantepec clade was maintained, although in t2 it was separated from the remaining areas of the country. The impact of deforestation on species distributions strongly affected the biogeographic regionalization of terrestrial mammals in Mexico.

| /unclassified/todo | 017

Impact of climate change on water resources in Yongdam Dam Basin, Korea

Kim, BS Kim, HS Seoh, BH Kim, NW

STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 21:4 355-373

The main purpose of this study is to investigate and evaluate the impact of climate change on the runoff and water resources of Yongdam basin, Korea. First, we construct global climate change scenarios using the YONU GCM control run and transient experiments, then transform the YONU GCM grid-box predictions with coarse resolution of climate change into the site-specific values by statistical downscaling techniques. The downscaled values are used to modify the parameters of a stochastic weather generator model for the simulation of the site-specific daily weather time series. The weather series is fed into a semi-distributed hydrological model called SLURP to simulate the streamflows associated with other water resources for the condition of 2CO(2). This approach is applied to the Yongdam dam basin in the southern part of Korea. The results show that under the condition of 2CO(2), about 7.6% of annual mean streamflow is reduced when it is compared with the current condition. Seasonal streamflows in the winter and autumn are increased, while streamflow in the summer is decreased. However, the seasonality of the simulated series is similar to the observed pattern

| /unclassified/todo | 059

An estimate of biogenic emissions of volatile organic compounds during summertime in China

Wang, QG Han, ZW Wang, TJ Higano, Y

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH 14:1 69-75

Background and Aim. An accurate estimation of biogenic emissions of VOC (volatile organic compounds) is necessary for better understanding a series of current environmental problems such as summertime smog and global climate change. However, very limited studies have been reported on such emissions in China. The aim of this paper is to present an estimate of biogenic VOC emissions during summertime in China, and discuss its uncertainties and potential areas for further investigations. Materials and Methods. This study was mainly based on field data and related research available so far in China and abroad, including distributions of land use and vegetations, biomass densities and emission potentials. VOC were grouped into isoprene, monoterperies and other VOC (OVOC). Emission potentials of forests were determined for 22 genera or species, and then assigned to 33 forest ecosystems. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis database was used as standard environmental conditions. A typical summertime of July 1999 was chosen for detailed calculations. Results and Discussion. The biogenic VOC emissions in China in July were estimated to be 2.3x 10(12)gC, with 42% as isoprene, 19% as monoterpenes and 39% as OVOC. About 77.3% of the emissions are generated from forests and woodlands. The averaged emission intensity was 4.11 MgC M-2 hr(-1) for forests and 1.12 MgC M-2 hr(-1) for all types of vegetations in China during the summertime. The uncertainty in the results arose from both the data and the assumptions used in the extrapolations. Generally, uncertainty in the field measurements is relatively small. A large part of the uncertainty mainly comes from the taxonomic method to assign emission potentials to unmeasured species, while the ARGR method serves to estimate leaf biomass and the emission algorithms to describe light and temperature dependence. Conclusions. This study describes a picture of the biogenic VOC emissions during summertime in China. Due to the uneven spatial and temporal distributions, biogenic VOC emissions may play all important role in the tropospheric chemistry during summertime. Recommendations and Perspectives. Further investigations are needed to reduce uncertainties involved in the related factors such as emission potentials, leaf biomass, species distribution as well as the mechanisms of the emission activities. Besides ground measurements, attention should also be placed on other techniques such as remotesensing and dynamic modeling. These new approaches, combined with ground measurements as basic database for calibration and evaluation, can hopefully provide more comprehensive information in the research of this field.

| /unclassified/todo | 041

The impact of water resources development projects on water vapor pressure trends in a semi-arid region, Turkey

Tonkaz, T Cetin, M Tulucu, K

CLIMATIC CHANGE 82:1-2 195-209

The aim of this study was to investigate long-term seasonal trends and decadal change patterns of monthly mean water vapor pressure (WVP) observation series at 16 meteorological stations scattered point-wisely over the Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) area in Turkey, where large-scale soil and water development projects have been put into practice since the 1970s. The record length of WVP observation series of each station varied between 31- and 41-years between 1962 and 2002. The monthly mean WVP observation series of each station was rearranged on seasonal basis. Sequential Mann-Kendall trend test, Sen’s slope estimator, and Spearman’s rank-order correlation tests were employed for detection of likely trends, and Kruskall-Wallis test was used to detect decadal variations in WVP series of each observation station. A possible area of representation for each meteorological station was determined by using the Thiessen polygons technique in a geographical information systems media. It was found that 15 seasonal WVP series have a positive trend covering 97% of the GAP area in the summer season; although one WVP series has a negative trend direction. However, in the spring season, 33% of the area had a positive trend, and a negative trend did not appear in any stations. WVP records in the winter season showed an increasing trend over 19% of the GAP area, whereas a decreasing trend prevailed in 9% of the area. The study results led us to conclude that the substantial increase of WVP observations in summer season could be attributed to both the shift from rain-fed agriculture to irrigated agriculture being made increasingly spacious year by year and building large water reservoirs in the GAP located in a semi-arid region. The results also indirectly suggested that the historical trends in the WVP parameters might be related to global climate change phenomenon.

| /unclassified/todo | 058

Causes of lineage decline in the Aplodontidae: Testing for the influence of physical and biological change

Hopkins, SSB

PALAEOGEOGRAPHY PALAEOCLIMATOLOGY PALAEOECOLOGY 246:2-4 331-353

This study documents diversity decline in a once-speciose rodent clade, the family Aplodontidae, and evaluates the potential influence of three commonly suggested controls on diversity: climate change, floral change, and competitive interactions. Aplodontids first appeared in the late Eocene, diversified during the early Oligocene, declined precipitously at the end of the Oligocene such that standing diversity was only about 5 species during the early Miocene, peaked again in the early middle Miocene, then declined through the late Miocene, and are entirely absent from the Pliocene and early Pleistocene fossil record. This long term pattern culminated in the survival of a single extant species, Aplodontia rufa, the mountain beaver. The species’ richness and body size distribution through time were compared with the timing of climatic changes as inferred from global oxygen isotope curves, with the rise of grasslands as inferred from phytolith and other stable isotope studies, and with fluctuating diversity of potential competitors as inferred from published stratigraphic and geographic distributions. The timing of global climate change is decoupled from the diversity fluctuations and seems not to have been a proximate cause. Rise of grasslands and the increasing dominance Of C-4 vegetation correlates with diversity decline in the late Oligocene and late Miocene, but data are sparse, and more work will be required to determine the mechanism driving this relationship. Examination of potential mammalian competitors (sciurids and castorids) finds no evidence for competitive replacement of aplodontids. It is difficult to ascribe the fluctuations in aplodontid diversity to a single cause. The explanation likely involves vegetation changes associated with the spread of grasslands, but there is some variation in diversity that cannot be explained by the vegetation, at least using the proxies employed here. Climate and competition are less consistent with the available data. The reasons for the decline of aplodontids in the late Oligocene and the late Miocene apparently involved the interaction of multiple physical and biological causes, coupled with the chance events that underlie any evolutionary process. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

| /unclassified/todo | 053

Environmental hazard analysis and effective remediation of highway seepage

Yuan, RM Yang, YS Qiu, X Ma, FS

JOURNAL OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS 142:1-2 381-388

Risk assessment and minimisation of environmental hazards are critical issues to consider in the geotechnical engineering projects. A case of highway pavement seepage induced by groundwater, at a locality along the section of Hua-Qing Highway of Guangdong Province, China, is presented for environmental hazard analysis and effective remediation. The environmental hazard analyses were based on in situ hydrogeologic investigation, rock-soil testing and integrated environmental understanding. The analyses indicate that the highway seepage was caused by elevation of groundwater hydraulic pressure in low permeable strata near the highway pavement, which was controlled by landform, hydrology, weather and road structure. The risk source of groundwater ‘flooding’ was the groundwater and surface water in the ring-like valley around Fenshui Village. A blind-ditch system for effective remediation of the pavement seepage hazard was proposed and successfully implemented by declining groundwater table near the highway based on the comprehensive assessment of various conditions. This geotechnical accident shows that the role of groundwater is an essential factor to consider in the geotechnical and environmental engineering studies and multidisciplinary effort for risk assessment of environmental hazards is important under current global climate change condition. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

| /unclassified/todo | 045

Long-term changes in the geographic distribution and population structures of Osilinus lineatus (Gastropoda : Trochidae) in Britain and Ireland

Mieszkowska, N Hawkins, SJ Burrows, MT Kendall, MA

JOURNAL OF THE MARINE BIOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION OF THE UNITED KINGDOM 87:2 537-545

Since the rate of global climate change began to accelerate in the 1980s, the coastal seas of Britain have warmed by tip to l degrees C. Locations close to the northern range edges of a southern trochid gastropod Osilinus lineatus in Britain previously surveyed in the 1950s and 1980s were resurveyed during 2002-2004 to determine whether changes in the success of near-limit populations had occurred during the period of climate warming. Between the 1980s and the 2000s, the range limits had extended by up to 55 krn. Populations sampled over a latitudinal extent of 4 degrees from northern limits towards the centre of the range showed synchronous increases in abundance throughout the years sampled, suggesting a large-scale factor such as climate was driving the observed changes. These increases in abundance and changes in range limits are likely to have occurred via increased recruitment success in recent years.

| /unclassified/todo | 033

Construction of a novel economy-climate model

Chou, JM Dong, WJ Ye, DZ

CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN 52:7 1006-1008

An attempt has been made to construct a novel economy-climate model by combining climate change research with agricultural economy research to evaluate the influence of global climate change on grain yields. The insertion of a climate change factor into the economic C-D (Cobb-Dauglas) production function model yields a novel evaluation model, which connects the climate change factor to the economic variation factor, and the performance and reasonableness of the novel evaluation model are also preliminarily simulated and verified.

| /unclassified/todo | 030

Evolutionary aspects of climate-induced changes and the need for multidisciplinarity

Pertoldi, C Bach, LA

JOURNAL OF THERMAL BIOLOGY 32:3 118-124

An integrated view on the possible effects of global climate change is provided while taking into account that not only the rising average temperature is likely to impact natural populations but also that increased variation around the mean and higher frequency of extreme events will be important. We propose that complex genetic effects in concert with demographic patterns may affect how focal populations react to the environmental challenge in an adaptive way (if they can). In order to aim for an inclusive picture of the ongoing environmental change we argue for a synthesis of knowledge from a range of ‘classical’ disciplines such as quantitative genetics, conservation genetics and population ecology. A hereto little exposed concern is the importance of the increase in amplitude of environmental fluctuations and how the corresponding evolutionary and ecological reactions are expected to occur. Due to the complex interactions between the ecological and genetic mechanisms in the response to climate-induced impacts interdisciplinary approaches are the most promising path in seeking knowledge about the present and future changes in the biosphere. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

| /unclassified/todo | 055

Irrigation and enhanced soil carbon input effects on below-ground carbon cycling in semiarid temperate grasslands

Xiao, CW Janssens, IA Liu, P Zhou, ZY Sun, OJ

NEW PHYTOLOGIST 174:4 835-846

Global climate change is generally expected to increase net primary production, resulting in increased soil carbon (C) inputs. To gain an understanding of how such increased soil C inputs would affect C cycling in the vast grasslands of northern China, we conducted a field experiment in which the responses of plant and microbial biomass and respiration were studied. Our experiment included the below-ground addition of particulate organic matter (POM) at rates equivalent to 0, 60, 120 and 240 g C m(-2), under either natural precipitation or under enhanced precipitation during the summer period (as predicted for that region in recent simulations using general circulation models). We observed that addition of POM had a large effect on soil microbial biomass and activity and that a major part of the added C was rapidly lost from the system. This suggests that microbial activity in the vast temperate grassland ecosystems of northern China is energy-limited. Moreover, POM addition (and the associated nutrient release) affected plant growth much more than the additional water input. Although we performed no direct fertilization experiments, the response of plant productivity to POM addition (and associated release of nutrients) leads us to believe that plant productivity in the semiarid grassland ecosystems of northern China is primarily limited by nutrients and not by water.

| /unclassified/todo | 032

Population trends and spatial synchrony in peripheral populations of the endangered Lesser grey shrike in response to environmental change

Giralt, D Valera, F

BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION 16:4 841-856

Regional synchronization in species dynamics as well as particular ecological and demographic characteristics of peripheral populations poses special challenges for conservation purposes, particularly under the current scenario of global climate change. Here, we study the population trend and spatial synchrony of several peripheral populations of the endangered Lesser grey shrike Lanius minor at the western limit of its breeding range (southern France and northeast Spain). In an attempt to ascertain the effect of environmental change on the decline of the species we also look for evidence of climate changes in the breeding and wintering area of this shrike and related effects on vegetation by using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We found that the interannual fluctuations of the peripheral populations in France and Spain are strongly correlated, therefore suggesting that their decline can be under the influence of a common factor. We obtained clear evidence of climatic change (an increased thermal oscillation) in one peripheral population that could have resulted in a decrease of the NDVI index in the area. Our study finds correlational evidence that climatic variables in the breeding area may account for fluctuations in abundances of some populations and that environmental conditions experimented by some population could influence the fate of the neighboring populations. Our results indicate that the studied peripheral populations are spatially synchronized, so that conservation efforts should be applied at a large-scale encompassing all the isolated populations at the western border of the range of the species in the Mediterranean area.

| /unclassified/todo | 042

Combining airborne photographs and spaceborne SAR data to monitor temperate glaciers: Potentials and limits

Trouye, E Vasile, G Gay, M Bombrun, L Grussenmeyer, P Landes, T Nicolas, JM Bolon, P Petillot, I Julea, A Valet, L Chanussot, J Koehl, M

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON GEOSCIENCE AND REMOTE SENSING 45:4 905-924

Monitoring temperate glacier activity has become more and more necessary for economical and security reasons and as an indicator of the local effects of global climate change. Remote sensing data provide useful information on such complex geophysical objects, but they require specific processing techniques to cope with the difficult context of moving and changing features in high-relief areas. This paper presents the first results of a project involving four laboratories developing and combining specific methods to extract information from optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data. Two different information sources are processed, namely: 1) airborne photography and 2) spaceborne C-band SAR interferometry. The difficulties and limitations of their processing in the context of Alpine glaciers are discussed and illustrated on two glaciers located in the Mont-Blanc area. The results obtained by aerial triangulation techniques provide digital terrain models with an accuracy that is better than 30 cm, which is compatible with the computation of volume balance and useful for precise georeferencing and slope measurement updating. The results obtained by SAR differential interferometry using European Remote Sensing Satellite images show that it is possible to measure temperate glacier surface velocity fields from October to April in one-day interferograms with approximately 20-m ground sampling. This allows to derive ice surface strain rate fields required to model the glacier flow. These different measurements are complementary to results obtained during the summer from satellite optical data and ground measurements that are available only in few accessible points.

| /unclassified/todo | 054

The agricultural impact of global climate change: How can developing-country farmers cope?

Russell, N

GEOTIMES 52:4 30-34

| /unclassified/todo | 061

Ecophysiological response and morphological adjustment of two Central Asian desert shrubs towards variation in summer precipitation

Xu, H Li, Y Xu, GQ Zou, T

PLANT CELL AND ENVIRONMENT 30:4 399-409

As part of global climate change, variation in precipitation in arid ecosystems is leading to plant adaptation in water-use strategies; significant interspecific differences in response will change the plant composition of desert communities. This integrated study on the ecophysiological and individual morphological scale investigated the response, acclimation and adaptation of two desert shrubs, with different water-use strategies, to variations in water conditions. The experiments were carried out on two native dominant desert shrubs, Tamarix ramosissima and Haloxylon ammodendron, under three precipitation treatments (natural, double and no precipitation, respectively), in their original habitats on the southern periphery of Gurbantonggut Desert, Central Asia, during the growing season in 2005. Changes in photosynthesis, transpiration, leaf water potential, water-use efficiency, above-ground biomass accumulation and root distribution of the two species were examined and compared under the contrasting precipitation treatments. There were significant interspecific differences in water-use strategy and maintenance of photosynthesis under variation in precipitation. For the phreatophyte T. ramosissima, physiological activity and biomass accumulation rely on the stable groundwater, which shields it from fluctuation in the water status of the upper soil layers caused by precipitation. For the non-phreatophyte H. ammodendron, efficient morphological adjustment, combined with strong stomatal control, contributes to its acclimation to variation in precipitation. On account of its positive responses to increased precipitation, H. ammodendron is predicted to succeed in interspecific competition in a future, moister habitat.

| /unclassified/todo | 086

Tension wood formed in Fagus sylvatica and Alnus glutinosa after simulated mass movement events

Heinrich, I Gartner, H Monbaron, M

IAWA JOURNAL 28:1 39-48

Due to the likelihood of global climate change, the frequency and magnitude of natural hazards such as mass movements may likewise change, thus favouring the refinement of methods to detect and quantify geomorphic events when precise records are not available. Geomorphic events typically have a significant effect on tree growth, e.g., reaction wood marked by changes in ring widths and wood density. To date, several dendroecological techniques have been developed to document the occurrence of these events but it rarely has been possible to retrieve additional information from reaction wood concerning the precise kind and intensity of geomorphic events. Additional qualitative information inferred from reaction wood of trees holds the potential to not only document but also estimate important characteristics of natural hazard events. To refine the methods already used in dendrogeornorpology, experiments simulating various geomorphic events were used to monitor subsequent wood anatomical responses of Fagus sylvatica and Alnus glutinosa. The preliminary results indicate that these two common broadleaf tree species show variations in their reactions to different experimental treatments.

| /unclassified/todo | 087

Breeding distributions of north American bird species moving north as a result of climate change

Hitch, AT Leberg, PL

CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 21:2 534-539

Geographic changes in species distributions toward traditionally cooler climes is one hypothesized indicator of recent global climate change. We examined distribution data on 56 bird species. If global warming is affecting species distributions across the temperate northern hemisphere, these data should show the same northward range expansions of birds that have been reported for Great Britain. Because a northward shift of distributions might be due to multidirectional range expansions for multiple species, we also examined the possibility that birds with northern distributions may be expanding their ranges southward. There was no southward expansion of birds with a northern distribution, indicating that there is no evidence of overall range expansion of insectivorous and granivorous birds in North America. As predicted, the northern limit of birds with a southern distribution showed a significant shift northward (2.35 km/year). This northward shift is similar to that observed in previous work conducted in Great Britain: the widespread nature of this shift in species distributions over two distinct geographical regions and its coincidence with a period of global warming suggests a connection with global climate change.

| /unclassified/todo | 057

What environmental fate processes have the strongest influence on a completely persistent organic chemical’s accumulation in the Arctic?

Meyer, T Wania, F

ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT 41:13 2757-2767

Fate and transport models can be used to identify and classify chemicals that have the potential to undergo long-range transport and to accumulate in remote environments. For example, the Arctic contamination potential (ACP), calculated with the help of the zonally averaged global transport model Globo-POP, is a numerical indicator of an organic chemical’s potential to be transported to polar latitudes and to accumulate in the Arctic ecosystem. It is important to evaluate how robust such model predictions are and in particular to appreciate to what extent they may depend on a specific choice of environmental model input parameters. Here, we employ a recently developed graphical method based on partitioning maps to comprehensively explore the sensitivity of ACP estimates to variations in environmental parameters. Specifically, the changes in the ACP of persistent organic contaminants to changes in each environmental input parameter are plotted as a function of the two-dimensional hypothetical “chemical space” defined by two of the three equilibrium partition coefficients between air, water and octanol. Based on the patterns obtained, this chemical space is then segmented into areas of similar parameter sensitivities and superimposed with areas of high default ACP and elevated environmental bioaccumulation potential within the Arctic. Sea ice cover, latitudinal temperature gradient, and macro-diffusive atmospheric transport coefficients, and to a lesser extent precipitation rate, display the largest influence on ACP-values for persistent organic contaminants, including those that may bioaccumulate within the polar marine ecosystems. These environmental characteristics are expected to be significantly impacted by global climate change processes, highlighting the need to explore more explicitly how climate change may affect the long-range transport and accumulation behavior of persistent organic pollutants. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

| /unclassified/todo | 038

Influence of elevated CO2 concentrations on thermal tolerance of the edible crab Cancer pagurus

Metzger, R Sartoris, FJ Langenbuch, M Portner, HO

JOURNAL OF THERMAL BIOLOGY 32:3 144-151

Current trends of global climate change affect marine ectothermal animals not only through the increase in ambient temperature. Synergistic effects of carbon dioxide and temperature changes as well as more frequent hypoxia events must also be considered. As a first attempt, the combined effects of warming and elevated CO2 concentrations were investigated in the edible crab (Cancer pagurivs). Arterial oxygen tension (PaO2) in the haemolymph was recorded on-line during a progressive warming scenario from 10 to 22 degrees C and cooling back to 10 degrees C. Hypercapnia (1% CO2) caused a significant reduction of oxygen partial pressure in the haemolymph as well as a large, 5 degrees C downward shift of upper thermal limits of aerobic scope. The present findings are the first to show that hypercapnia causes enhanced sensitivity to heat and thus, a narrowing of the thermal tolerance window of a marine ectotherm. Such interactions of ambient temperature and anthropogenic increases in ambient CO2 concentrations will need to be considered during future investigations of the effects of climate change on ecosystems. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

| /unclassified/todo | 056

Spatial and temporal effects of pre-seeding plates with invasive ascidians: Growth, recruitment and community composition

Agius, BP

JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL MARINE BIOLOGY AND ECOLOGY 342:1 30-39

Many shallow water subtidal habitats in Massachusetts, USA have recently been invaded by five non-indigenous ascidian species: Ascidiella aspersa, Botrylloides violaceus, Didemnum sp., Diplosoma listerianum and Styela clava. This study examined the effects of seawater temperature, as a proxy for climate change, on B. violaceus and D. listerianum and the impact these ascidians have on native sessile fouling communities. Field experiments were conducted over a four month period at two locations (Lynn and Woods Hole, MA) to examine growth dynamics over regional thermal and geographic ranges. Invasive ascidians occupied as much as 80% of the primary substratum and accounted for the majority of species richness. B. violaceus and D. listerianum growth were similar at both study sites, but initial colony growth of D. listerianum was positively affected by temperature. B. violaceus and D. listerianum exhibited rapid two-week growth rates during the summer months with more rapid growth at the warmer Woods Hole site. Competition for space between B. violaceus and D. listerianum typically resulted in neutral borders between colonies. Overgrowth occurred if the colony of one species was disproportionably larger than the colony of the other species. Recruitment and growth of native species influenced the long-term composition of experimental communities more than the pre-s